Tropical Disturbance 96L has emerged in the western Bahamas and will drift west-northwest bringing heavy rains to southern Florida this weekend and re-emerge over very warm surface water in the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday night beginning to intensify to a tropical cyclone.

The expected broad wetter-than-normal climate pattern across Australia driven by an evolving La Nina appears to develop in the latest NCEP CFS V2 weekly rainfall forecast.

An anticipated below normal U.S. electricity demand for summer 2020 due to the effects of Covid-19 on U.S. industry did not materialize as demand exceeded expectations due to the anomalous heat. U.S. meteorological summer 2020 ranked 4th hottest in the 126-year climatology. Arizona and all of southern New England observed the hottest JUN/JUL/AUG on record. Only Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas observed near normal summertime heat with all other states hotter than normal.

There is a significant change in the ENSO outlook: Stronger La Nina for late 2020 into early 2021. The catalyst to this stronger La Nina forecast is the previously proposed influence (on ENSO) by an evolving negative Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD). The -IOD pattern warms the (already very warm) eastern Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean tropics while cooler-than-normal waters dominate the equatorial Pacific east of the Dateline.