09/08/2021, 4:45 pm EDT

Where We Stand On The Tropics As Peak Of Season (September 10) Arrives

According to Colorado State University, seasonal activity so far in 2021 is about twice normal. Based on the rate of activity so far, seasonal forecasts issued earlier this summer may not be sufficiently active. NOAA's upper limit of their range forecast indicate up to 9 additional tropical storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 intense hurricanes.
09/03/2021, 5:01 am EDT

The Contribution of Warm SSTA to the Intensity of “Ida”

The warm SSTA pattern in the northern Gulf of Mexico just-prior to Ida's passage and off the U.S. East Coast as the remains of Ida traversed the northern Mid-Atlantic States provided a significant contribution to the storms unprecedented intensity over such a large (inland) stretch.
09/01/2021, 3:57 am EDT

Southwest Great Plains Drought Beginning

The NOAA/CPC monthly drought outlook for the U.S. indicates the Upper Midwest U.S. drought eases in September. However, the southwest Great Plains observes developing drought conditions. The GFS (model) is quite dry and exceptionally hot for the first half of September in the southwest/south Great Plains.
08/31/2021, 7:05 am EDT

Tropical Disturbance 90L The Next Potential Important Hurricane

Tropical Disturbance 90L appears to be the strongest tropical wave to move off the West Africa Coast so far this season. Consequently, tropical cyclone models develop 90L with a west to west-northwest 5-day track with intensification to hurricane strength. A category-3 major hurricane is possible in 5 days. This system is a concern for the U.S. East Coast given the potential influence on the steering currents of a west-travelling hurricane in the North Atlantic subtropics.