The Nino23 SSTA regions remain consistent in the moderate intensity of La Nina range for mid-May. However, mostly very negative daily southern oscillation index implies the atmosphere is locked-in on strong La Nina presence. Models are indicating some weakening of La Nina for just-after mid-year but no signs of that weakening yet.

The current U.S. Evaporative Drought Demand Index (EDDI) clearly identifies much of the southern half of the U.S. as rainfall starved with attendant worsening dry to drought soil moisture. The driest EDDI is located over the Desert Southwest, south-central Nebraska, and parts of eastern Kentucky, the eastern Carolinas and Florida. The northern U.S. has benefited from cool temperatures, snowmelt and wet periods to cause a EDDI wet surplus.

The last major summer drought in the U.S. was observed in 2012 when the Great Plains were hit hard! The soil moisture conditions during May 2012 were quite dry but not as dry as May 2022. Given a 3rd consecutive La Nina summer the U.S. is likely to encounter a historic drought.

The Gulf of Mexico has warmed to a basin average of +0.93C which is a whopping +0.99C change in the past 30 days. If this trend were to continue, over-achieving intensity of early season storms in the Gulf of Mexico are likely.