12/08/2017, 11:36 am EST

East Pacific Headed Toward La Nina But Atmosphere Says No

A measure of the atmosphere’s reaction to the ENSO regime is multivariate ENSO index (MEI). During the past 2 months MEI has shifted from weak La Nina to neutral ENSO. Expected next week is that NOAA will announce La Nina onset due to the cooling east-central Pacific (Nino34 zone) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). But does the climate agree?
12/08/2017, 11:05 am EST

North America Observes 7th Snowiest November in the 1966-2017 Climatology

According to the Rutgers University Snow Lab the North America snow cover in November 2017 was 7th highest in the 1966-2017 period of record. Interestingly, the November 2017 value is similar to November 2013 and 2014 which were followed by “polar vortex winters”.
12/04/2017, 4:39 am EST

Developing/Expanding Eastern U.S. Snow Cover During Middle December

Snow cover is currently well below normal for early December across the North-Central to Northeast U.S. But that regime changes beginning this week and especially next week as a polar vortex weather pattern develops and combined with the relative warm Great Lakes causes widening snowfall (and snow cover).
12/03/2017, 7:08 pm EST

ENSO Analogs Show A Stronger La Nina

La Nina is looking stronger and may last longer than previously forecast. Additionally, the idea that El Nino could regenerate later in 2018 is now less likely. A La Nina global climate is now more certain through the first quarter of 2018.