Unless the subsidence pattern stretched across the deep tropics of the North Atlantic basin reverses soon, the seasonal activity levels will likely be somewhat lower than outlooks issued late last spring and mid-summer. Due to seasonality, conditions should improve, and SEP/OCT looks like the busiest time of the 2022 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season (vs. AUG/SEP of most years). However, due to the late start of the season, the seasonal totals are likely less than the buoyant numbers associated with seasonal outlooks previously issued.

Dry air entrainment is holding back TD 4 right now. However, this system should reach minimal tropical storm intensity prior to striking the far northeast coast of Mexico this evening. Models are under-playing the attendant rainfall potential. The remains of inland shifting Danielle will further enhance a heavy rain event across Texas lasting for several days.

The AG Resource Midwest U.S. Crop Tour marches on westward after finding better conditions to the east and worsening conditions to the west (although not as bad as expected). The findings are well-supported by soil moisture analysis. The pattern ahead for the U.S. Corn Belt to finish summer is tricky offering both extended periods of dryness interrupted by renegade rains.

In late August, GFS indicates a titanic upper-level high-pressure ridge extending from the Great Lakes region to Quebec. The upper-level ridge is well-correlated to very warm SSTA in the northwest North Atlantic basin. The GFS indicates the tropical cyclone season finally gets underway the last week of August.