The daily southern oscillation index (SOI) is -1.2 which is exceptionally negative especially when compared to the dominant La Nina-like positive phase of the past one year. The shift to negative phase is due to the passage of the convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) through the equatorial East Pacific and onto the Atlantic basin. The MJO strength is exceptional and one of the strongest signatures in recent years.

A familiar upper air forecast over the next 15 days across South America with an amplified upper ridge across the warm SSTA east of Argentina and a low-pressure trough extending north from near the Amundsen Sea cool SSTA pool. A transient MJO inspires a wet pattern across Brazil funneling moisture southward around the backside of the South Atlantic subtropical high into west and central portions of Argentina but missing much of the drought zone.

During early 2023, soil moisture conditions improved greatly from California to the Upper Midwest U.S. The Argentina drought worsened, and re-emerging drought appeared in France. Dryness appeared in East-central Australia and Northeast India.

Winter 2022-23 ranked 18th warmest on record. The entire East and most of the South U.S. were in the MUCH ABOVE normal category which included an all-time-record warm winter season in Massachusetts while 17 states were in the top 5 warmest all-time. The West U.S. was moderately chilly averaging in the top 1/3 all-time coldest winter seasons.