12/28/2017, 9:51 am EST

Is The Unusually Inactive Sun Contributing To The Evolving Super Cold in the U.S.?

The evolving extreme cold developing across the U.S. and likely to last 7-10 days was not caused by any particular climate diagnostic. However, a look at solar activity offers a possible link. Solar activity is currently entering the 11-year minima about 1 year faster than forecast. The last solar minima which was unusually strong and of long duration produced cold to very cold mid-latitude winter seasons.
12/27/2017, 4:42 pm EST

Vigorous Incoming Arctic Air Lasts Well Into Next Week – Record Cold Event Possible

Increasing concern that the strength of the arriving arctic air mass from the Midwest to the Northeast is STRONGER and of LONGER DURATION causing associated maintenance issues for utilities due to HIGH demand.
12/25/2017, 11:06 am EST

A Ragged La Nina Continues

La Nina 2017-18 remains biased cool across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to the east of the Dateline. The Nino4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) region which represents equatorial SSTA near and just east of the Dateline remains in neutral ENSO phase. The Nino34 SSTA is within moderate La Nina criteria while off the northwest coast of South America La Nina is quite strong (Nino3/Nino12).
12/22/2017, 10:56 am EST

How Long Does The Evolving Cold U.S. Pattern Last?

An evolving cold air mass featuring arctic air is ahead for the northern U.S. and some of this vigorous cold is likely to extend to Northeast Corridor where forecast models indicate piling snows over the next 1-2 weeks. Early January is potentially the second coldest of the past 10 years. Forecast models indicate the cold reverses quickly in 3 weeks. But will it? New stratospheric warming is indicated in 13-15 days and lack of a progressive MJO into the Pacific Ocean will allow the big chill to linger.