02/15/2018, 6:24 pm EST

Will A Returning Warm Phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation Contribute to U.S. Summertime Drought?

The warm phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation is re-emerging. Coupled with an expected warmer than normal North Atlantic during the northern hemisphere warm season in 2018 research by McCabe, Palecki and Betancourt have shown a climatological increased risk of drought to the Northwest U.S., Great Plains and Southeast U.S. given these middle latitude oceanic conditions.
02/07/2018, 9:08 am EST

Entering Solar Minima

The January 2018 solar cycle sunspot number is updated by NOAA/SWPC. The observed data identifies a persistent decline in activity and indicates entrance into the solar minima which on average occurs every 11 years. The entrance to solar minima is 1 year ahead of forecast. Implied is another potentially unusually lengthy solar minima as observed in 2008-2010.
02/03/2018, 7:33 am EST

When Climate Change Affects The North America/Europe 8-14/11-15 Day Forecast

Another exceptional climate event is forecast by operational meteorological models in 10 days as the strongest sudden stratospheric warming event of winter 2017-18 develops over Greenland. Due to the influence of climate change, this time the SSW event does not produce an arctic outbreak. Why?
01/31/2018, 11:35 am EST

The ENSO Forecast Dilemma for 2018

The extended-range ENSO forecast is uncertain as models vary from sustained La Nina to a possible El Nino onset. Tracking the dynamics of the subsurface over the next 2-3 months is the best diagnostic to determine ENSO phase into mid-2018.