12/20/2017, 3:49 pm EST

Early January 2018 Projected 3rd Coldest of Past 10 Years

An outbreak of arctic air is forecast to move into the northern Plains this weekend and slowly sprawl south and east likely across fresh snow cover. Heading into the New Year the U.S. population weight gas home heating degree day forecast is 258 which is 36 HDD above normal and easily the coldest week of this early winter so far. The cold start to the New Year is not the coldest in recent memory. Early 2014 and 2010 were slightly colder.
12/17/2017, 6:10 pm EST

Arctic Outbreak Next Weekend and Christmas Week!

An eastward shift of the Madden Julian oscillation from the equatorial Pacific Ocean into the Atlantic in the 6-10 day period coupled with a stratospheric warming event over northern Canada next weekend forces arctic air formation in south-central Canada this weekend released into the West and Central U.S. early next week. The air mass races into Texas moderating south of snow cover nevertheless having quite a cold punch. Eventually, the air mass shifts into the East days 11-15. An expansive U.S. snow cover evolves during the period.
12/15/2017, 2:19 pm EST

La Nina Warmth Will Try And Dominate U.S. Winter

So far, despite brief periods of cold the U.S. is super warm for December 2017. The second half of the month according to the midday operational GFS (model) as depicted by Storm Vista Weather Models indicates eastern Canada turns frigid but most of the U.S. remains warmer than normal. What climate factor is the leading cause of the warm start to winter?
12/13/2017, 11:10 am EST

Pacific Decadal Oscillation Has Gone Neutral. Precedent for U.S. in 2018? Dry!

The historic 2010-13 cool phase of the PDO was followed by an even more impressive warm phase (2014 into 2017). The extreme PDO signature has ended. Analogs indicate neutral phase will continue for 2018. The analogs indicate that nationally a drier than normal climate will evolve which the 90-day precipitation trend is indicating that potential scenario has already developed.