07/25/2020, 6:56 am EDT

Hanna Roars Into Southern Texas as a Hurricane Today

An ideal environment for intensification - low shear and very warm surface water - causes Hanna to become a hurricane slamming the south coast of Texas just south of Corpus Christi this afternoon.
07/19/2020, 11:58 am EDT

Tracking Peak of Summer Heat Waves

Does another heat wave follow the current episode for next weekend? ECMWF says yes and forecasts a stronger event than currently taking place. The GFS is not nearly as hot. The question is whether the hot air source region in the Central U.S. pulses eastward (or not). GFS says no while ECM is (vigorously) yes! The precedent is set as last week’s Midwest heat wave has shifted into the East now. A second event is likely and given peak summer heat the next event could be hotter.
07/15/2020, 8:24 am EDT

MJO Causes Record Slow Start to West Pacific TC Season

The Pacific tropical basin has observed no significant tropical cyclone activity since early June including no category-3 systems, the first time in the satellite measuring era (since 1966) according to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Using accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index the seasonal activity (so far) for the Pacific basin is 20% of normal.