11/01/2023, 5:37 pm EDT

Central/East-central Brazil Strengthening Drought Watch Initiated

Climate Impact Company summer 2023-24 precipitation forecasts for South America identify Central Brazil as an area likely to observe worsening drought. Currently, NOAA daily soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals widespread drought areas lingering in South America most focused on Chile, Argentina, and northern continent. Dryness also exists across many parts of Brazil. Of concern is deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture deficits caused by long-term dry climate shifting southward into Central Brazil. The combination of shallow and deep layer dry soils can lead to fast-evolving drought.
10/31/2023, 8:52 am EDT

New Research Confirms Tendency for Faster Hurricane Intensification

During the current warm AMO cycle, hurricanes are observed to intensify more rapidly when crossing over warm water. According to Andra Garner’s white paper “Observed increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates” the number of category-1 hurricanes intensifying to a major hurricane within 36 hours has doubled in the modern warming of the North Atlantic era.
10/30/2023, 10:07 am EDT

Early Solar Maxima 25 Forecast (by NOAA) and Adjusted Stronger. Surprises Still Possible.

NOAA updated the solar cycle 25 forecast late last week. Solar cycle 25 is interesting, beginning much more active than expected and well ahead of the initial forecast. However, recent months have brought a slowdown in solar activity making the over-achieving character of early solar cycle 25 to question. The new NOAA projection is certainly stronger than the initial forecast. Additionally, the arrival of solar maxima 25 is faster.
10/25/2023, 5:22 am EDT

North Atlantic Tropics Week 2-4 Outlook: More late season trouble ahead!

Overnight “Otis” intensified rapidly to become a category-5 major hurricane just before striking Acapulco on the south coast of Mexico this morning. Former Tropical Depression 21 has crossed Central America and entered the East Pacific and is likely to drift west-northwest and become another hurricane. Hurricane Tammy is forecast to turn northwest and west while transitioning into a powerful extratropical cyclone. An ALERT is issued for the North-central Caribbean Sea for a possible tropical cyclone emerging next week.