As the 2025 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season begins, a review of where we stand regarding upper ocean heat across various basins in the North Atlantic where tropical cyclones form and travel. In the tropical North Atlantic, upper ocean heat is above the 2013-24 normal and tied for 3rd warmest in the 13-year climatology. If warming (compared to normal) occurs during the summer months, hurricanes will be in the upper limit of 6-10 forecast by NOAA for the 2025 season.

The NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast continues to reveal a wide array of possible ENSO conditions for later this year. The latest 8 members of the ensemble forecast indicates a range of neutral ENSO to strong La Nina by early meteorological autumn.

The NOAA risk of heat-related impacts forecast returns today. Climate Impact Company will use the most important potential hot weather days in daily reports. Today, highlighted are 3 days of important heat. The first is tomorrow when unusual moderate heat risk affects the Upper Midwest. The “unusual” moderate heat risk shifts across the Ohio Valley midweek and through the Northeast Corridor on Thursday. Low 90’s can occur in this zone. The highest heat risk (relative to normal) this week is on Saturday and targets the San Antonio to Houston area.

The Madden Julian oscillation 14-day forecast settles on phase_7/phase_8 during the medium range with increasing intensity justifying a cooler and wetter East U.S. forecast. The ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall outlook indicates wet weather, possibly heavy rain in the southern Great Plains with the wet regime expanding to the Tennessee Valley and southern Ohio Valley.