The West/Southwest U.S. drought zone received some marginally beneficial rainfall last week particularly in Texas. However, concern increases regarding down trees/power outage potential in the Mid-Atlantic region where soil moisture is excessive.

The subsurface (and surface) ocean environment of the equatorial East Pacific can warm but the atmosphere must react to that warmth to initiate El Nino. A measure of the atmospheric environment to the ocean temperatures of the equatorial Pacific Ocean is the multivariate ENSO index. The mid-2018 trend of MEI is away from El Nino onset.

The U.S. climate observations for July 2018 continue to produce an extreme signature due to the tendency of recent climate (past 5-10 years) to produce increasing number of weather patterns featuring stagnant high pressure ridge areas that cause a dry climate which dries soils and enhances attendant anomalous heat or stationary upper troughs causing excessive rainfall to produce historic flooding.

Anytime a mode of climate variability used to assess and/or predict climate a review of its presence and potential impacts is required. During July 2018 the strongest easterly phase of the high level wind over the equatorial region known as the quasi-biennial oscillation evolved.