Last week the early season anomalous warm pattern across much of Europe continued! Strong warming was also common in parts of Eastern Asia and across the Southwest U.S. Drought Area.

The Madden Julian oscillation was unusually strong shifting from the equatorial East Pacific across the Atlantic during early-to-middle April causing a cold upper trough to form over central and eastern North America made colder by unusually abundant late season snow cover likely causing the coldest April on record for mid-spring.

Summer is approaching and soil moisture forecast confidence is lowering. The issue is whether southwest/central U.S. drought expands toward the Corn Belt which is not well supported by models and where the strong Southwest drought goes during summer? NOAA kills all drought areas except the Southwest. So…uncertainty for drought risk in U.S. for summertime but the trend is away from drought east of the Divide.

Subsurface warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is increasing based on NOAA analysis. Implied is the complete demise of La Nina and increasing risk of El Nino the second half of 2018. If so, tropical cyclone activity will be diminished in the North Atlantic basin for this summer.