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11/18/2024, 5:40 am EST
Expected is a drier climate bias across South America due to emergence of Madden Julian oscillation in the tropical Indican Ocean/Maritime Continent over the next 2-3 weeks. The drier bias is underway during the past week centered on Paraguay, Northern Argentina, and Southeast Brazil. In South America, drought conditions continue across many sectors.
11/17/2024, 6:52 am EST
Red Flag Warnings issued due to high fire risk are relatively rare for the northern Mid-Atlantic to southern New England States. However, warnings for high fire risk have been common during late meteorological autumn across this region as historical drought has developed. The powerful atmospheric subsidence to produce the drought is related to the recent evolution of an upper air pattern caused by the North Atlantic Warm Hole.
11/15/2024, 11:31 am EST
-NAO pattern inspires a vigorous stormy and cold trough across Europe centered on the 6-10-day period. Snow cover has lagged over northwestern Eurasia. However, during the next 10 days snow cover widens into Europe. ECMWF warms Europe in early December; prefer the colder CFS V2 forecast as meteorological winter arrives.
11/14/2024, 5:38 am EST
Likely related to latent heat release of late season tropical cyclones in both the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific, a gathering of anomalous warm air aloft leading to a high-pressure block convenes over Greenland characteristic of a strong negative phase North Atlantic oscillation. In the middle latitudes, compensating cold trough patterns develop and replace the prevailing very warm climate of autumn 2024.
11/13/2024, 5:49 am EST
In Europe, an upper trough brings snow to Northern Europe to reverse the lack of early season snow in that region this weekend (Fig. 2). By Monday, a wintery feel with wind is emerging across U.K., North-central Europe, and Northeast Eurasia. A mid-next week rainstorm emerges over West-central Europe with trailing cold air that could cause some snow in U.K. and possibly as far south as Northern Spain.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Atmospheric River Brings Life Threating Hazards to Northern California
The NOAA/WPC 7-day quantitative precipitation (QPF) forecast projects 10-20 in. of rain (and many feet of mountain snow) centered on Northern California. The persistent storm track through the weekend is part of an "atmospheric river" storm track.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
U.S. Winter Outlook Emphasizes Cold Risk West; Warm East as Strong -PDO/+AMO Fuel Pattern
The updated month 1-4 climate outlook for the U.S. features increasing forecast confidence based on the influence on North America climate by dramatic cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation and warm phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. A weak ENSO regime has limited influence.