Latest News
07/22/2025, 4:49 am EDT
AI 4Cast Net V2 ECM ENS is used operationally due to the much higher skill score compared to traditional operational models during the past 30 days. The outlook is considerably cooler across Eastern Europe where a wet pattern resides. Wet and cool weather extends to the Black Sea region.
07/20/2025, 12:16 pm EDT
The 2-week outlook across the U.S. features harsh high impact weather including a stretch of heavy rain, severe thunderstorms, and local flooding from the Southern Canadian Prairies across the North-Central U.S. and through the Midwest States.
07/18/2025, 5:44 am EDT
On July 1st, the Artificial Intelligence Forecast System Ensemble (AIFS ENS) was introduced. So far, AIFS ENS is second-best forecasting 2-meter temperature across Australia for both the 6-10-day and 11-15-day periods. ECM ENS is number 1! The ECM ENS is routinely at the top for the past 1 year of the evaluations shown for most parts of the world including North America and Europe. The AIFS ENS debut is impressive, challenging ECM ENS at the top.
07/17/2025, 6:04 am EDT
93L moves inland over Louisiana today unloading 3-6 inches of rain across the coastal region. A Flood Watch covers the entire southern half of Louisiana. The latent heat release of the stagnant convection over the next 2-3 days is released into the middle atmosphere to the north and forces a high-pressure area to build. The high pressure expands westward while continuing to strengthen causing a late July massive heatwave!
07/15/2025, 4:59 am EDT
Intense heat featuring widespread risk of >100F is indicated for the southern ½ to 2/3 of the U.S. into early August. The hardest hit is the Dallas to Kansas City to Atlanta triangle. The entire area is dry enhancing the heat. There is general agreement with other models (GFS ENS and AI) except for CFS V2 which is farther west with the upper ridge.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Subsurface Equatorial East Pacific Showing Signs of Cooling
The upper ocean temperature anomaly structure in the eastern equatorial Pacific indicates a new moderately deep cool layer. The warm layer just beneath the surface is beginning to weaken. The long-term ENSO outlook for later in 2025 remains in the neutral phase. However, as observed all of 2025, some models are indicating La Nina development, and a slight cooler trend has developed supportive of the La Nina outlier forecasts.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
First North Atlantic Hurricanes 2016-24 and Following Activity
The Operational GFS and ECM forecast models are not projecting hurricane threats through their 15-day forecast period which brings us to August 4th without a hurricane so far during the 2025 season. Since 2018, the season’s first hurricane occurred prior to August 1st and during the 2016-24 active period (seasonal activity about 30% higher than the 30-year normal) the average date of the first hurricane is July 14th.