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03/05/2026, 5:39 am EST
The severe weather pattern continues today and into the weekend. Severe thunderstorms including a tornado risk reform across the southern Great Plains later today and tonight. A widening area of severe storms and tornado risk stretch across the eastern Great Plains and include Texas to the Midwest States tomorrow.
03/04/2026, 8:16 am EST
The U.S. weekly evaporative drought demand index (EDDI) valid for late February indicates parts of the U.S. most susceptible to drought or flash drought as the warm season arrives is the Gulf States, parts of the Southwest U.S., and central U.S. Corn Belt. If areas listed shifted into a dry climate as the warm season arrives, rapid drought development/intensification would generate in these zones. However, the U.S. precipitation pattern is forecast to change through the next 30 days featuring above too much above normal precipitation in Texas to the Ohio Valley in the latest 15-day outlook likely to continue in the week 3-4 period.
03/03/2026, 3:00 pm EST
Reviewing the Climate Impact Company U.S. heating degree day (HDD) count for selected cities reveals the coldest location for meteorological winter 2025-26 was Norfolk, VA where 117.4% of the 30-year normal HDD was observed. Values above 110% are considered MUCH BELOW normal temperature (or MUCH HIGHER than normal heating demand). Norfolk was followed closely behind by New York City (117.0%), Baltimore, MD (114.3%), Richmond, VA (114.2%) and Hartford, CT (113.7%).
03/02/2026, 1:31 pm EST
Northern Africa, Southern Europe, and into the Middle East develop an impressive low latitude storm track. Central Europe to West/Southwest Russia and most of the Black Sea region are drier than normal.
03/01/2026, 6:40 am EST
During February, robust warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean subsurface was observed and supports an El Nino ahead climate signal. The last months when the entire equatorial Pacific subsurface were warmer than +1.0C was observed during April-June 2023 when Nino34 SSTA was +0.88C by June on the way to +1.99C by December. Multivariate ENSO index (MEI) shifted to an El Nino supporting +0.5 in June (2023) peaking at +1.1 in December.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Mega-cluster Ensemble “Most Likely” Forecast Indicates Cold Spike East March 18th
At midday, 7 of 14 forecasts (combining dynamic and AI models) are cold in the East during the 11-15-day period. ECM OP and Weather Next V2 appear coldest while GFS OP is warmest. Support from climate signals to substantiate the cold forecast is poor. However, the mega-cluster ensemble “most likely” March 17th scenario is heavily biased by ECM which supports vigorous chill in the East and equally impressive warmth over Nevada. ECM, GFS, and CMC are near equally shared to generate a “caveat” forecast for March 18 which is very cold across the eastern half of the U.S.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
AIFS ENS and ECM ENS Remain Top North America Medium-range Forecast Models
A check on skill scores for North America medium range forecasts as meteorological winter closes. Using anomaly correlation provided by CWG/SVMW, the 6-10-day skill scores indicate AIFS ENS remains (routinely) the top model. ECM ENS typically ranks second to AIFS ENS and collectively, using both 30-day and 7-day skill scores, that ranking remains.