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05/12/2025, 5:17 am EDT
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Early Season ERCOT Heatwave!

Subsidence on the back side of an East Coast trough causes the onset of an excessive hot weather pattern across Texas on Tuesday. The hottest day of an extended heatwave is Wednesday when southwest flow extending across Texas from the hot air source region across the Mexico drought area occurs. Widespread 100’s are likely on Wednesday. The hot southwest flow peaks Wednesday although likely remaining through the 10-day heat wave.
05/08/2025, 3:05 pm EDT

Neutral ENSO Here To Stay

The Climate Impact Company constructed analog ENSO phase forecast valid through May 2026 yields oceanic (Nino34 SSTA) El Nino potential for later this year while the atmospheric (multivariate ENSO index) ENSO phase is neutral. Dynamic models mostly agree with neutral phase.
05/07/2025, 8:28 am EDT
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Nino12 SSTA Vs. Brazil Rainfall Pattern

During mid-February to mid-April, the Nino12 SSTA region warmed to an unexpected +1C to +2C. During the 2-month period, the warm waters in this region contributed to a wet climate bias favoring northwest South America and eastward into North-central Brazil. As the Nino12 region cooled recently, wet weather shifted across Brazil.
05/06/2025, 5:06 am EDT
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Southern Europe to Black Sea Region Heavy Rain Pattern Ahead

An amplifying upper-level low-pressure trough is forecast to settle over Europe through mid-May causing excessive rainfall from Southern Europe to Southwest Russia. Much of Europe turns much cooler due to the long-lasting storm. The Eastern Europe to Southwest Russia drought certainly receives some wet relief in this pattern. However, Western Europe is dry.