The Europe/Western Russia month 1-5 outlook is based on regional SSTA patterns affecting Europe particularly the East Pacific Super El Nino and resurgent North Atlantic warm hole south of Greenland. Favored is a mild winter across Europe. The risk of negative North Atlantic oscillation events causing cold weather regimes during the winter season is below normal. However, periods of cold and snow are likely in nearby Northwest Eurasia to Western Russia and will create periods when monitoring for cold from the east, especially in January, is important.

The 15-day outlooks are consistent with expansive wetter than normal conditions across Southern Brazil and Paraguay with ECM ENS the most aggressive (wet) forecast. Note that recent rainfall has been abundant through a narrow channel stretching from Northern Chile to central continent to the Brazil Southeast Coast. Either side of the wet weather very dry conditions have persisted.

About 80% of the U.S. is encountering dry-to-drought conditions as calendar summer ends. Amazingly, the wet weather of a Super El Nino will wipe out most of the drought during Q4/2026 except the Northwest States where drought is likely to gain strength.

Overnight, both the GFS and ECM operational models project heavy rain associated with a tropical cyclone during the 11-15-day period in the Gulf of America and the Southeast U.S. Coast plus Florida. The 11-15-day forecast indicates potential for a high impact event gaining substantial confidence if the same projection is in the 6-10-day forecast late this weekend. GFS develops a system in the Northwest Caribbean Sea late next week and projects a stalling hurricane in the eastern Gulf of America during the last 5 days of the month. ECM develops a system in the Northeast Gulf during the 11-15-day period.

ECMWF issued new probabilistic climate forecasts yesterday. Super El Nino peak is projected for DEC/JAN/FEB 2026-27. A review of precipitation patterns, anticipated by ECMWF, is provided. Included are vigorous California and U.S. East Coast storm tracks and likelihood of Northern Brazil drought/Southeast Brazil flooding rains.