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11/18/2024, 5:40 am EST

MJO-inspired Drier Brazil Climate into Middle December

Expected is a drier climate bias across South America due to emergence of Madden Julian oscillation in the tropical Indican Ocean/Maritime Continent over the next 2-3 weeks. The drier bias is underway during the past week centered on Paraguay, Northern Argentina, and Southeast Brazil. In South America, drought conditions continue across many sectors.
11/17/2024, 6:52 am EST

The Inevitability of a Northeast U.S. Drought Caused by the North Atlantic Warm Hole Upper Air Pattern

Red Flag Warnings issued due to high fire risk are relatively rare for the northern Mid-Atlantic to southern New England States. However, warnings for high fire risk have been common during late meteorological autumn across this region as historical drought has developed. The powerful atmospheric subsidence to produce the drought is related to the recent evolution of an upper air pattern caused by the North Atlantic Warm Hole.
11/15/2024, 11:31 am EST

Europe Cold and Snow Ahead!

-NAO pattern inspires a vigorous stormy and cold trough across Europe centered on the 6-10-day period. Snow cover has lagged over northwestern Eurasia. However, during the next 10 days snow cover widens into Europe. ECMWF warms Europe in early December; prefer the colder CFS V2 forecast as meteorological winter arrives.
11/14/2024, 5:38 am EST

Strong Negative North Atlantic Oscillation Brings High Impact Wintery Weather to U.S. and Europe!

Likely related to latent heat release of late season tropical cyclones in both the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific, a gathering of anomalous warm air aloft leading to a high-pressure block convenes over Greenland characteristic of a strong negative phase North Atlantic oscillation. In the middle latitudes, compensating cold trough patterns develop and replace the prevailing very warm climate of autumn 2024.
11/13/2024, 5:49 am EST

-NAO Causes U.S. and Europe Storms Including Early Season Chill for Europe

In Europe, an upper trough brings snow to Northern Europe to reverse the lack of early season snow in that region this weekend (Fig. 2). By Monday, a wintery feel with wind is emerging across U.K., North-central Europe, and Northeast Eurasia. A mid-next week rainstorm emerges over West-central Europe with trailing cold air that could cause some snow in U.K. and possibly as far south as Northern Spain.