Latest News
05/17/2026, 10:07 am EDT
The NEW relative SSTA analysis across the Pacific basin reveals neutral ENSO as measured within the Nino34 SSTA region. Conversely, the standard global SSTA analysis reveals moderate El Nino has formed. As of late April, multivariate ENSO index was -0.6, indicating a lingering La Nina climate.
05/14/2026, 4:58 am EDT
We are experiencing elements of the ENSO springtime predictability barrier, specifically, lack of a sustained atmosphere-to-ocean link to force an El Nino climate. The equatorial oceanic warming is there but the atmospheric reflection lags.
05/13/2026, 12:25 pm EDT
El Nino onset helps to inspire sharp upper-level low-pressure troughs in the subtropics to take advantage of the much warmer than normal Southeast Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and tropical East Pacific SSTA patterns causing widespread low latitude heavy rains. Latent heat release poleward warms the atmosphere near the U.S./Canada border causing a warmer/drier pattern for the Northern U.S. later this month.
05/12/2026, 9:34 am EDT
Solar Cycle 25 has passed peak and is now decelerating in intensity which will continue into solar minimum beginning in 2030. Once solar minimum is reached, solar cycle 26 begins. The APR-26 sunspot number was 79.3 and weaker than various forecast model projections.
05/07/2026, 1:47 pm EDT
A U.S. pattern change featuring a wetter climate, mostly affecting the Southern States, is forecast by various probabilistic and dynamic models for later this month and early meteorological summer. Required to inspire a wetter pattern is persistent negative southern oscillation (SOI) or the onset and intensification of an El Nino climate.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
ECM/CFS Warm June (CDD’s); AI Shifts Cooler
The estimated U.S. population weight CDD forecast indicates dynamic models ECM and CFS stay warmer than normal in the week 3-5 outlook while AI models are warmer than ECM/CFS in early June and much cooler for mid-June.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
So Far in May, Midwest U.S. Soils are Drier. Wet Weather to Return!
The U.S. Weekly Drought Monitor analysis reveals a slight increase (76%) from the previous week in aerial coverage of dry-to-drought soil moisture conditions while severe (D3-D4) drought remains unchanged at 19%. During May so far, U.S. soil moisture tendency is much drier across the Midwest States and much wetter in the Gulf region. Wet weather including daily severe weather events regenerates in the Central U.S. through the weekend into early next week!