The convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is alive shifting eastward across the East Pacific tropics to tropical Africa and eventually western tropical Indian Ocean during the next 2 weeks. Intensity is marginal although ECM indicates weak-to-moderate intensity. Usually, an MJO shift through phase_1/phase_2 increases risk of hot and dry weather in Australia and a wetter regime for South America.

The ECM/ECM ENS continue a wet forecast bias across northwest South America, much of Brazil, and Uruguay during the past 30 days for all 15-day forecasts. This wet bias increases during the medium (6-10-day) and extended (11-15-day) range. The GFS/GFS ENS has a dry bias for West Brazil and Paraguay/Southeast Brazil.

Departing September, GRACE-based soil moisture anomalies analysis reveals improving conditions in the central/east-central Brazil soybean-growing areas while harsh drought in the southern soybean-growing areas receives beneficial rainfall in the latest 15-day outlook. The far eastern soybean growing-areas remain in drought with a dry outlook during the next 15 days.

Negative Indian Ocean dipole (-IOD) contributes to Central and East Australia rainfall during winter and spring while La Nina biases eastern continent wet. Both climate signals emphasize a wet bias to Australia climate and diminish dry risk. The -IOD regime is well established while borderline weak La Nina is present but without a clear atmospheric response. Consequently, the anticipated wet climate for early spring is patchy, based on September rainfall terciles. Note the dryness in key Australia crop areas in Victoria and eastward.

Since last month, it’s getting more difficult to make the case for significant cold this winter season. The November forecast edges warmer, and DEC/JAN is already warm. FEB cold risk remains but confidence is lower. MAR chill remains in the forecast. Forecast models are warm. Mid-latitude oceans are warm. The orientation of mid-latitude SSTA supporting cold weather in North America this winter season showed potential one month ago but are eroding since that time.