Latest News
01/14/2026, 5:06 am EST
Negative Arctic Oscillation Produces Cold-to-Frigid Weather Most of Mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere
The updated 15-day arctic oscillation (AO) forecast maintains a moderate to strong negative phase for the remainder of January eventually causing cold weather in each sector of the mid-latitude northern hemisphere. In Europe, short-term mild climate steadily fades into the deep freeze the last third of January.
01/14/2026, 4:12 am EST
Into mid-year through early next year, the South America climate forecast is primarily reliant on the arrival and intensification of El Nino. Forecast highlights include a hot and dry Southeast Brazil regime in February followed by a mostly dry Brazil during autumn while lingering anomalous heat affects Argentina. The winter season is milder than normal. Next spring and summer are mostly hotter/drier than normal across Brazil away from the coast.
01/13/2026, 4:07 am EST
The 15-day AO outlook strengthens the negative phase. The projected JAN-26 value is near -2.0 rivaled most recently by JAN-21 (-2.4) and JAN-10 (-2.6). Right now, arctic air mass stretches across Eurasia. During the 6-10-day period, the 500 MB anomaly outlook projects a “ridge bridge” over Alaska. The upper ridge causes a cross-polar low-level air mass trajectory taking arctic air from Russia into North America.
01/12/2026, 9:09 am EST
An impressive looking Kelvin Wave has moved east of the Dateline and has strengthened. Cool waters remain in the subsurface off the northwest coast of South America fueling La Nina cool signatures in the Nino SSTA regions.
01/11/2026, 11:54 am EST
The convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is moderately strong near the Dateline. Forecasts indicate an eastward shift toward the longitude of the Americas in the extended range. While the current (phase_6) of MJO favors a drier than normal climate for most of Argentina/Brazil, the shift into phase_7 favors broadly wetter than normal climate. Consequently, wetter 8-14/11-15-day (model) forecasts are favored. The wetter bias should last into the 16-20-day timeframe.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Regional Stratospheric Warming Episode Eastern North America Late January
At midday, the 12Z GFS indicates evolution of a significant REGIONAL STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT across eastern North America occurring mid-to-late 11-15-day period. The warming is likely in response to a moderate to strong eastward shifting convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) across the equatorial Pacific.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
Regional Stratospheric Warming Expands Westward to North America East Coast Late January; Causes East U.S. Chill
A frigid Russia air mass inspired in-part by regional stratospheric warming shifts westward into Europe during the medium range as the stratospheric warmth also shifts westward to the North Atlantic in 11-15 days. By late month, the stratospheric warming reaches eastern North America and should cause a cold ending of January/beginning of February for eastern North America.