Latest News

10/14/2024, 4:33 am EDT

Weak La Nina Ahead Won’t Last Long

Climate diagnostics reveal marginal support for weak La Nina ahead. Dynamic and analog forecasts maintain weak La Nina for late 2024 likely not lasting long ending as meteorological winter 2024-25 in the northern hemisphere closes. The low confidence ENSO phase forecast for the remainder of 2025 is steady neutral ENSO phase. Strong ENSO events are not likely into 2026.
10/10/2024, 4:45 am EDT

Great Plains Dry Pattern Continues as Drought Worsens

The U.S. AG Belt remains arid most vividly displayed by the 14-day percent of normal rainfall analysis. The daily soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals the strengthening Great Plains drought. All models remain very dry in the 15-day outlooks with the exception of the GFS offering patchy wet weather in the medium range.
10/09/2024, 5:51 am EDT

Catastrophic Category-5 Major Hurricane Milton Heading for Tampa Area Making Landfall Tonight

At 5AM EDT, Category-5 Major Hurricane Milton was located at 24.5N/85.4W or about 300 miles southwest of Tampa, FL. Milton is moving northeast at 14 mph with top wind near 160 mph. Central pressure is 907 MB. Milton has maintained category-5 intensity longer than expected. The southwest flow aloft is moving Milton northeastward. However, the hurricane is concentric so weakening effects of shear on the hurricane have not started.
10/08/2024, 4:42 am EDT

Some Wet Weather Ahead in the Black Sea Region

Upper ridge patterns are well-amplified and centered on Northern Italy and West-central Russia. In-between is an upper trough brining wet weather to the drought region across Southwest Russia and much of the Black Sea region. The upper trough lingers into early November. Also, a look at optimum climate normal for Europe winter.