Latest News
09/02/2025, 2:46 pm EDT
The North Atlantic basin SSTA is +0.28C which is quite cool compared to other years this decade. The 1-year change is -0.53C which is very impressive. However, there are basins which are very warm and capable of contributing to over-achieving tropical cyclones and their intensity. The Gulf of Mexico is near record warm (+0.90C) which is steady during the past 2 weeks. The Caribbean Sea is also very warm and unchanged during the past 2 weeks.
09/01/2025, 9:10 am EDT
The official U.S. population weight CDD for August 2025 from NOAA will be published in a few days. Climate Impact Company (CIC) projects 272 CDD for August which is cooler than the 30-year normal (290 CDD) and much cooler than the 10-year normal (332 CDD). The NOAA assessment is (more) likely cooler than the CIC estimate. The AUG-25 CDD total is 2nd coolest (for AUG) this century trailing only 2004 (254 CDD).
08/28/2025, 9:48 am EDT
The strongest marine heat waves (MHW) on record in the West Pacific and in-between Japan and the Asia Coast extending to MHW’s NEP25A and NEP25B in the Northeast Pacific are well-correlated to the summer 2025 upper air pattern featuring a strong upper-level high-pressure ridge. Similarly, the MHW’s in the east/northeast portion of the North Atlantic are well-correlated to a semi-permanent upper-level high-pressure ridge dominating the west/south portion of Europe during summer 2025.
08/25/2025, 10:22 am EDT
The lack of tropical cyclone activity across the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea is allowing each basin to shift warmer. The Gulf of Mexico is nearly 1C warmer than normal and warmer by 1/3C during the past 30 days. The Caribbean Sea has warmed by 2/10C during the past 30 days to 0.65C. However, the North Atlantic basin is marginally warm at +0.34C and much cooler than 1 year ago by 0.52C.
08/22/2025, 5:20 am EDT
The Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate outlooks for meteorological spring 2025 and winter 2025-26 is issued. The spring season is mostly cooler than normal across much of the continent with a wet bias in the East. The summer outlook reverses drier and hotter in the East.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Slowly, Equatorial Pacific Subsurface Cools
The equatorial Pacific Ocean upper-ocean heat is slowly cooling. The cooling trend, if continued, supports a return of La Nina for quarter 4/2025. The Nino34 SSTA is close to the La Nina threshold while the Nino3 SSTA has shifted to La Nina phase.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
Strong Negative Indian Ocean Dipole Arrives; La Nina Approaching!
During the past week, the Nino SSTA regions have cooled dramatically. The Nino34 SSTA is -0.49C today, very close to the -0.50C La Nina threshold. Off the northwest coast of South America, the Nino12C chilled rapidly to -0.80C. In the tropical Indian Ocean, the western areas have cooled while the southeast tropics have warmed dramatically signaling a moderate-to-strong negative Indian Ocean dipole (-IOD).