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11/06/2024, 2:48 pm EST
A developing marine heatwave off the East Coast of South America is expected to continue strengthening while shifting southward toward and off the Argentina Coast. MHW's in this position during summertime are well-correlated to an upper low-pressure area near the southeast coast of Brazil. Subsidence on the back side of the low leads to a dry climate and increased drought risk in Argentina and possibly Western Brazil.
11/05/2024, 6:05 am EST
Tropical Storm Rafael reaches peak intensity in the northwest Caribbean Sea where upper ocean heat is plentiful and the upper shear pattern is light. Rafael maintains intensity across the warm waters of the Southeast Gulf tomorrow night. However, continued northwest tracking beyond the LOOP Current brings Rafael into cooler waters causing some weakening. On the weekend, Rafael encounters a vigorous shear pattern considerably lowering Rafael’s intensity.
11/04/2024, 11:44 am EST
The Madden Julian oscillation is shifting to the east (phase_1 to phase_2), across the tropical longitudes of the Americas and eventually through tropical Africa in 2 weeks. Many high impact climate events are SUPPOSED to happen with this regime. Some of them WILL happen.
11/03/2024, 1:33 pm EST
Tropical Disturbance 97L located in the south-central Caribbean Sea is forecast to become a tropical storm traveling northwestward across Western Cuba Wednesday with a low confidence 4-5-day forecast track into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Tropical cyclone model intensity forecasts indicate tropical storm intensity and for the moment doubt hurricane risk. A northwestward traveling tropical cyclone into the Gulf of Mexico is rare.
11/01/2024, 8:25 am EDT
As of 5:30AM EDT, Reuters reports 158 deaths associated with series of flash flood events centered on Valencia on the East Coast of Spain. The extreme rain began earlier this week, and additional rainfall is forecast over the weekend. The cause of this extreme weather event is related to the prevailing sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern across the North Atlantic.
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Rafael Trending Farther Westward in the Gulf of Mexico; Possibly Stronger
After tomorrow, forecast confidence of where Hurricane Rafael travels is low (and lowering). The issue is the position of the subtropical ridge north and northeast of Rafael this weekend. If the ridge weakens, Rafael turns northward. If the ridge maintains strength, a westward drift continues and Rafael may be stronger.
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The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge Pattern
An expanding Northern Eurasia snow cover cools the atmosphere aloft and forces a broad low-pressure trough during mid-November. To compensate, a ridiculously resilient ridge (RRR) stays intact across eastern North America and Western Europe enhanced by lack of snow cover and a marine heat wave (MHW) west of Europe.