Latest News
10/16/2024, 2:31 pm EDT
Marine heat waves continue to produce significant influence on where semi-permanent high-pressure areas form alongside their compensating low-pressure areas. Many MHW’s are ongoing in the northern hemisphere, the strongest east of Japan. Regenerating MHW’s are likely during the southern hemisphere summer in the subtropical/middle latitude oceans. The extensive warming of the ocean caused by MHW’s is likely suppressing La Nina onset.
10/15/2024, 7:52 pm EDT
Meteorological summer brings suppressed heat risk across the western third of the continent while central and eastern Australia are hotter than normal. The precipitation regime is quite wet in the Northwest, near normal on the South Coast, and drier than normal from central New South Wales across much of Queensland. Summer drought risk during summer 2024-25 increases in Queensland to Northern New South Wales.
10/14/2024, 4:33 am EDT
Climate diagnostics reveal marginal support for weak La Nina ahead. Dynamic and analog forecasts maintain weak La Nina for late 2024 likely not lasting long ending as meteorological winter 2024-25 in the northern hemisphere closes. The low confidence ENSO phase forecast for the remainder of 2025 is steady neutral ENSO phase. Strong ENSO events are not likely into 2026.
10/10/2024, 4:45 am EDT
The U.S. AG Belt remains arid most vividly displayed by the 14-day percent of normal rainfall analysis. The daily soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals the strengthening Great Plains drought. All models remain very dry in the 15-day outlooks with the exception of the GFS offering patchy wet weather in the medium range.
10/09/2024, 5:51 am EDT
At 5AM EDT, Category-5 Major Hurricane Milton was located at 24.5N/85.4W or about 300 miles southwest of Tampa, FL. Milton is moving northeast at 14 mph with top wind near 160 mph. Central pressure is 907 MB. Milton has maintained category-5 intensity longer than expected. The southwest flow aloft is moving Milton northeastward. However, the hurricane is concentric so weakening effects of shear on the hurricane have not started.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Heavy Rains Southern Brazil While Northern Brazil Becomes Hot/Dry
Weak upper trough cuts off over Southwest Brazil propelling a heavy rainfall episode this week through next week. Significant relief to the long-term drought is certainly implied. ECM "weeklies" ease but do not end the Southern Brazil into early November. Northern Brazil becomes the focus of hot and dry weather.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
Explaining The Recent Spike in Negative Phase Indian Ocean Dipole
The recent reversal in the IOD pattern to negative phase is quick and sharp. Climate Impact Company explains this sudden change due to expansion of a marine heat wave off the northwest coast of Australia into the eastern Indian Ocean tropics. Some dynamic models maintain this trend, others prefer this sudden shift as temporary.