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05/19/2026, 8:49 am EDT
Combining GFS and ECM yields a heavy rain weather pattern evolving this week and extending into next week yielding 7+ inches of rain in East Texas to Southwest Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana. The forecast is made increasingly convincing by a potentially eastward shifting active Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) as forecast by GFS.
05/17/2026, 10:07 am EDT
The NEW relative SSTA analysis across the Pacific basin reveals neutral ENSO as measured within the Nino34 SSTA region. Conversely, the standard global SSTA analysis reveals moderate El Nino has formed. As of late April, multivariate ENSO index was -0.6, indicating a lingering La Nina climate.
05/14/2026, 4:58 am EDT
We are experiencing elements of the ENSO springtime predictability barrier, specifically, lack of a sustained atmosphere-to-ocean link to force an El Nino climate. The equatorial oceanic warming is there but the atmospheric reflection lags.
05/13/2026, 12:25 pm EDT
El Nino onset helps to inspire sharp upper-level low-pressure troughs in the subtropics to take advantage of the much warmer than normal Southeast Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and tropical East Pacific SSTA patterns causing widespread low latitude heavy rains. Latent heat release poleward warms the atmosphere near the U.S./Canada border causing a warmer/drier pattern for the Northern U.S. later this month.
05/12/2026, 9:34 am EDT
Solar Cycle 25 has passed peak and is now decelerating in intensity which will continue into solar minimum beginning in 2030. Once solar minimum is reached, solar cycle 26 begins. The APR-26 sunspot number was 79.3 and weaker than various forecast model projections.
Climate Impact Company Chart of the Day
Developing/Broadening Warm/Dry Pattern Ahead for Europe
High pressure broadens across Europe during June and causes an expansive warmer than normal pattern which includes a drier weather pattern.
Climate Impact Company Climate Diagnostics
U.S. Daily Energy Report: Leading indicators are -PNA and emerging MJO.
This week’s heat spike in the East and Southeast weighs heavily on national electricity demand. The national CDD count lowers to near normal next week. The ECM forecast is wetter and suppresses heat risk into early June while other models are less wet allowing some rewarming in the East. In the extended range, 2 of 3 AI models shift much warmer for the week ending June 15th while CFS shifts cooler to near normal.