Yesterday’s year ahead climate forecast for North America reveals a dry climate pattern setting up across the northwest Great Plains to the Ohio Valley during APR/MAY/JUN 2025 expanding northward across the Canadian Prairies during JUL/AUG/SEP 2025. The dry pattern is accompanied by anomalous heat and implies potential for a large drought developing during the 2025 warm season.

Typically, La Nina brings wet weather to Eastern Australia. The daily Nino34 SSTA descends to -0.85C and La Nina onset is imminent. Short-term heavy rains are in the forecast for Coastal Queensland. However, the week 2-4 outlook (from ECM) is widespread drier and hotter than normal across Eastern Australia, very different from a typical La Nina climate.

A strong positive phase Asia-Bering Sea-North America (+ABNA) index emerges over the next 2 weeks and cools the North Pacific which leads to (NOAA) La Nina onset and intensity increase, a warming of North America and soaking atmospheric river into the North America West Coast.

Despite agreement between CFS V2 and ECMWF on evolution of a polar vortex pattern in Canada by Jan. 6-12, forecast confidence remains below average. There are questions on whether the PV pattern is driven by late December stratospheric warming over Eurasia or whether the event is in response to an eastward shift of the Madden Julian oscillation across the American longitude. Additionally, there are questions on extent of snow cover to force an effective cold and whether a ridge bridge across Alaska can tap Siberia arctic air. Stay tuned! A potential cold scenario, but not a guarantee.

On the ENSO front, nearly 30 days of positive phase southern oscillation index (+SOI) intensifying during early December has caused increased trade winds and cooling SSTA in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The Nino34 SSTA reached the La Nina threshold of -0.50C over the weekend. The +SOI regime continues through mid-December. Oceanic La Nina onset is possible by early January.