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08/12/2025, 9:36 am EDT
Beginning next week, the hot weather affecting the East breaks down, and near normal temperatures prevail the remainder of the month. CIC agrees with ECMWF that anomalous warmth regenerates in September (AI and other operational models are cooler in the East during early September).
08/11/2025, 9:02 am EDT
The outlook across Europe trends hotter and drier. The primary change is extending the heat and dryness through the 11-15-day period. All Europe crop areas are affected. In the U.S., the Corn Belt observes weather extreme with period sof heavy rain and hot temperatures.
08/07/2025, 1:42 pm EDT
Simultaneous heatwaves affecting high population regions of the U.S. and Europe are indicated by the 12Z GFS for the 6-10-day period. The heatwave continues in the 11-15-day period anchored over the Central/Midwest U.S. and Western Europe (Fig. 3-4).
08/07/2025, 9:05 am EDT
Tropical Disturbance 96L is benign. However, tropical cyclone models indicate a west to northwest track with development to a tropical storm this weekend. Extended-range forecasts indicate potential for 96L to become a hurricane meandering off the Northeast Coast later next week. In the 6-10-day period, both GFS and ECM indicate significant tropical cyclone risk in the northeast Caribbean Sea and central North Atlantic tropics.
08/04/2025, 9:20 am EDT
Neutral ENSO remains and the recent cooling trend toward La Nina temporarily slows. Once into the second half of August, +SOI is likely to return. A trend toward La Nina is indicated for Q4/2025. Whether the Nino34 SSTA can shift sufficiently cool and stay consistent to initiate La Nina is in question.
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ECMWF Projects El Nino for 2026
ECMWF has shifted their Nino34 SSTA forecast to El Nino by MAR/APR/MAY 2026. ECMWF is the only forecaster, for now, with the El Nino risk. Since the 2015-16 El Nino episode, ENSO has fluctuated between weak La Nina and weak El Nino looks and that trend seems to be continuing.
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U.S. Climate Rankings for Each State in July
The U.S. observed the 19th hottest July in the 131-year climatology. Virginia and West Virginia were hottest on record for mid-summer. The eastern third of the U.S. was MUCH ABOVE normal during July. In July, the U.S. observed the 34th wettest mid-summer on record. Despite the heat, Virginia observed the 6th wettest July on record. Iowa observed their 2nd wettest July on record. Some states were very dry including Utah, Alabama, and Maine.