A stalled frontal system coupled with 2 short waves of energy in the upper atmosphere expand an already heavy rainfall event generated in northeast Argentina lasting into the weekend. Flash flooding a certainty with this event.

The global soil moisture trend during the past 3 months brought historic wet changes to Texas, the Midwest U.S. and parts of the East U.S. In Europe drought intensified and expanded eastward while Australian drought weakened slightly. In South Africa the latest drought condition strengthened while northern Argentina into central Brazil turned wetter.

Coupling between the warming eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere to produce an El Nino climate is not occurring. For this reason other regional climate generators gain influence. One recent example is emergence of a very un-El Nino-like wet regime evolving in northeast Brazil.

A major U.S. storm is ahead featuring a Nebraska blizzard, Mid-South U.S. tornado outbreak and 10 in. of rain across northern Florida is ahead inspired by interaction of mid-latitude storms entraining deep subtropical moisture provided by the tropical East Pacific Madden Julian oscillation. The event is a possible sign of El Nino climate onset. El Nino will be with us well into 2019.