News
03/21/2023, 3:41 pm EDT
Dynamic ENSO phase forecast models are indicating a full-tilt El Nino by August 2023. Implied is a tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic basin possibly similar to the last full-throttle El Nino that suppressed North Atlantic activity. Below normal rainfall was observed during JUL/AUG/SEV 2015 across the Southern U.S., Gulf of Mexico, and western North Atlantic tropics.
03/20/2023, 6:00 am EDT
Highlight: Breezy West Texas early-to-middle of week. Big Spring, TX… MON: Sunny, breezy. Southwest wind 12-25 gust to 40 mph. High 62. Low 45. TUE: Mostly sunny, less breezy. Southwest wind 8-18 gust to 30 mph. High 77. Low 52. WED: Mostly sunny. Wind southwest 8-18 gust to 25-30 mph. High 84. Low 54. THU: Chance of showers. Wind southwest 8-18 gust to 25-30 mph. High 79. Low 46. FRI: Sunny. Light east wind. High 70. Low 42. Days 6-10: -1.0. 50% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: -0.5. 50% of normal precipitation. Tyler, TX… MON: Mostly sunny. High 60. Low 46. TUE: Increasing clouds. High 68. Low 61. WED: Chance of showers. High 80. Low 63. THU: Chance of showers. High 79. Low 54. FRI: Showers ending. High 76. Low 49. Days 6-10: +1.0. 90% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +1.5. 110% of normal precipitation. El Dorado, AR… MON: Sunny. High 57. Low 37. TUE: Partly cloudy. High 64. Low 55. WED: Partly cloudy. High 77. Low 60. THU: Partly cloudy. High 80. Low 52. FRI: Showers. High 75. Low 46. Days 6-10: +1.0. 110% of normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +1.0. 110% of normal precipitation. Krotz Springs, LA… MON: Sunny. High 60. Low 42. TUE: Mostly sunny. High 72. Low 55. WED: Partly cloudy. High 81. Low 61. THU: Mostly sunny. High 86. Low 65. FRI: Showers, thunder. High 86. Low 59. Days 6-10: +2.0. 110% normal precipitation. Days 11-15: +2.0. 110% of normal precipitation.
03/17/2023, 8:31 am EDT
Since late January, the Pacific North America (PNA) index has shifted to a (mostly) steady negative phase. A brief positive phase is with us now, but strengthening negative phase returns in the latest 15-day forecast. The -PNA pattern occurs when an upper-level troughing in the jet stream pattern occurs just off the North America West Coast. The persistence of the -PNA pattern has caused the Northeast Pacific to cool, the Northeast Pacific marine heat wave (MHW) to shift westward and reinvigorate the cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (-PDO).