News
10/11/2022, 1:01 pm EDT
Wind Outlook Discussion: In this report, our concern is with California and Texas. All models are considered to help identify any peak wind generation events and their catalyst. Beginning with Northern California (Fig. 1), unusual high wind events in the 15-day forecast are not expected. However, several periods of moderate wind are indicated. Today through Thursday offers a light to sometimes moderate northeast to southeast wind. A similar weather wet-up brings a stronger easterly wind on Saturday into Sunday. ECMWF is strongest with this event. On October 23-24, moderate to strong northwest wind trailing a Pacific cold front is expected. In Southern California (Fig. 2), several events are indicated featuring moderate wind power generation potential. However, each may be over-forecast given questionable synoptic dynamics. Each event indicated are east-southeasterlies driven by low-pressure near the southern California Coast. In Texas (Fig. 3), the events identified are supported by synoptic events. Briefly windy trailing a passing cold front tonight/tomorrow followed by more favorable wind generation episodes this weekend and early next week. Southwesterlies are moderate this weekend ahead of a cold front. Easterlies trailing that cold front are more impressive early next week. Each event can last 2 days. A period of moderate southwesterlies is indicated for 2 to 3 days centered on October 21-23. Fig. 1: Wind generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for Northern California. Fig. 2: Wind generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for Southern California. Fig. 3: Wind generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for Texas. Solar Outlook Discussion: The 15-day outlook indicates a peak event (which is about 85% of the absolute peak this time of year) across CAISO is present late this week and through the weekend as clouds in Southern California break (Fig. 4). GFS returns cloudiness on the weekend and consequently this forecast is made with below average confidence. Another peak event occurs October 19-20. Across ERCOT (Fig. 5), separate peak events are more clearly defined. Peak solar generation potential (for October) is indicated on Oct. 13 followed by a 2-day event on Oct. 19-20 and a 3rd episode Oct. 26-27. Sunny and dry weather across Texas is about to give way to periodic rain and clouds. Fig. 4: Solar generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for CAISO. Fig. 5: Solar generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for ERCOT.
10/11/2022, 8:20 am EDT
During JUL/AUG/SEP 2022 large regions of wet soil moisture change outnumbered large areas of dry soil moisture change 12-8. The large region wet soil moisture changes from the past 3 months were most dramatic in India, interior northeastern Asia, Southeast Asia, and parts of North-central and east tropical Africa.
10/10/2022, 12:04 pm EDT
La Nina 2020-22 is likely to produce a 3rd peak in November followed by a steady demise in early 2023. Most analog and dynamic model forecasts agree with this scenario. Neutral ENSO evolves by FEB/MAR 2023 and El Nino may follow for the second half of 2023. If El Nino generates later in 2023, a much different climate pattern emerges. Included wet risk for the Southern U.S. and northern Argentina/southern Brazil and a dry climate for India, Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and Australia.
10/09/2022, 11:41 am EDT
Discussion: The September 2022 climate across the U.S. was characterized by anomalous warmth dominating the West alongside a stronger than normal Southwest wet monsoon while the East-central/Mid-south U.S. observed very dry conditions. The zonal wind anomalies observed in September were lighter than normal across the Southwest U.S. and Continental Divide region while slightly above normal in Pennsylvania (Fig. 1). In the East, meridional wind was lighter than normal (Fig. 2). There was an area of stronger than normal meridional wind across Southern California. The September forecast anticipated a much stronger zonal wind across the Southeast U.S. (Fig. 3). That result is surprising as the projected upper air pattern (high pressure West/low pressure Northeast) verified. The forecast indicated above normal west-to-east flow south of the Northeast low-pressure area, but observation reveal the wind was lighter than normal (from the west). The meridional wind anomaly forecast indicated light wind across the Central U.S. (Fig. 4). However, observations reveal wind speeds in the north and/or south direction were near normal during the late warm season. Fig. 1-2: September 2022 observed zonal and meridional wind anomalies. Fig. 3-4: Original Climate Impact Company zonal and meridional wind anomaly forecast for September 2022. In September 2022, the above normal strength of the wet Southwest U.S. Monsoon was dominant. Heavy convection leads to well above normal moisture at 850 MB (Fig. 5) extending westward to California (at times). In opposition to that pattern was generally clear skies across the expanding drought zone in the Mid-south U.S. The high cloud regime (at 300 MB) also followed the low cloud pattern closely (Fig. 6). The September forecast completely understood the expanding dryness and drought risk to the Central/Mid-south U.S. (Fig. 7-8). However, the low specific humidity (SH) forecast at low and high levels of the atmosphere in that zone were too strong due to the under forecast SH in the Southwest States. Fig. 5-6: September 2022 observed 850 and 300 MB specific humidity anomalies. Fig. 7-8: Original Climate Impact Company 850 and 300 MB specific humidity anomaly forecast for September 2022.