11/20/2022, 12:32 pm EST

Evolving Arctic Air Mass is Possible in Russia

The mega-cluster ensemble indicates an area of cold weather in Russia may strengthen and intensify over the next 15 days driven in-part by above normal snow cover which recently reached Eastern Europe.
11/17/2022, 8:54 am EST

Hot/dry Summer Argentina; Most (Not All) of Brazil Avoids Drought

The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) climate forecast for South America during meteorological summer 2022-23 indicates persistent anomalous heat and dryness in Argentina where flash drought is quite possible. The dryness extends to Southeast Brazil although less consistent. Far Southeast Brazil has a drought risk for summer 2022-23. The remainder of Brazil Crop Areas is normally wet with diminished drought risk.
11/14/2022, 4:54 am EST

High Impact Weather to Develop Europe/Western Russia

The NAWH trough is extending eastward and will now produce another high impact weather regime across Western Europe…excessive rainfall! The GFS 15-day rainfall forecast indicates several in. of rain with high spots >5 in. for Western and Southern Europe for the second half of November. Farther downstream, a cold and snowy trough develops in Western Russia next week.
11/08/2022, 2:25 pm EST

Oceanic La Nina ends by FEB 2023; La Nina Climate Lingers

La Nina is moderate-to-strong enjoying a 3rd peak in intensity of the 2020-22 cold ENSO regime. However, dynamic and statistical ENSO phase forecast models are agreeable to La Nina ending in early 2023 coinciding with demise of negative Indian Ocean dipole (-IOD). However, the La Nina climate is unusually strong and could linger to the mid-point of 2023. El Nino remains a possibility for later 2023.