09/16/2018, 5:08 pm EDT

Unusually Warm Ocean Propelled Florence Intensity

Unusually warm waters off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast U.S. and attendant sea level rise helped Florence produce unusually extreme rainfall and an immense storm surge.
09/14/2018, 8:02 am EDT

Hurricane Florence Moves Inland Today SLOWLY as Hurricane Conditions in North Carolina Continue

Florence is moving inland this morning in the Wilmington, NC area while much of the storm remains offshore today therefore sustaining hurricane conditions well into Friday night.
09/11/2018, 10:35 pm EDT

Florence Caveat Forecast

The Category 4 Hurricane Florence forecast track toward the North Carolina coast is straight-forward. However, what happens after Florence reaches the North Carolina coast is more uncertain. Evolution of a new tropical cyclone striking Texas late Friday and the influence on a new subtropical ridge over the Midwest U.S. could cause Florence to slow down and possibly shift southwestward this weekend.
09/10/2018, 11:24 am EDT

More Hurricanes Than Expected in 2018

Seasonal forecasts by leading providers indicated 5 hurricanes for the 2018 season. However, we're already to 5 and almost certain to eclipse 6-7 which is normal for a season given Sep. 10 is the halfway point of the tropical cyclone season. One of the reasons for increased number of hurricanes is the failure of EL Nino to develop as indicated by multivariate ENSO index which is a measure of the atmosphere's response to ENSO.