The Climate Impact Company constructed analog ENSO phase forecast valid through May 2026 yields oceanic (Nino34 SSTA) El Nino potential for later this year while the atmospheric (multivariate ENSO index) ENSO phase is neutral. Dynamic models mostly agree with neutral phase.

During mid-February to mid-April, the Nino12 SSTA region warmed to an unexpected +1C to +2C. During the 2-month period, the warm waters in this region contributed to a wet climate bias favoring northwest South America and eastward into North-central Brazil. As the Nino12 region cooled recently, wet weather shifted across Brazil.

An amplifying upper-level low-pressure trough is forecast to settle over Europe through mid-May causing excessive rainfall from Southern Europe to Southwest Russia. Much of Europe turns much cooler due to the long-lasting storm. The Eastern Europe to Southwest Russia drought certainly receives some wet relief in this pattern. However, Western Europe is dry.

The opinion of Climate Impact Company is that -IOD generation – which is expected – will regenerate La Nina for later this year which would enhance seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin.