Tropical cyclone formation in the central North Atlantic tropics during June is unusual. The catalyst this year is a favorable low shear environment and enhanced early season inter-tropical-convergence-zone (ITCZ) enables by much warmer than normal SSTA.

Discussions and photos of AG Belt soil moisture conditions, especially in Illinois, worse than conveyed by data. Rainfall deficits are in the 3-6/6-9 in. range across the Ohio Valley. A new analysis produced by NOAA is issued tomorrow and increasing rainfall deficits expected.

The developing and steady wet trade wind regime in the tropics is inspired in-part by what is likely to be the warmest SSTA pattern on record for the main development region (MDR) for North Atlantic hurricanes as defined by the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index.

Until the waters off the East Coast warm significantly, the tendency for cool temperatures in the East U.S. with very limited number of warm-to-hot days will continue into mid-summer.