Tropical Disturbance 96L is benign. However, tropical cyclone models indicate a west to northwest track with development to a tropical storm this weekend. Extended-range forecasts indicate potential for 96L to become a hurricane meandering off the Northeast Coast later next week. In the 6-10-day period, both GFS and ECM indicate significant tropical cyclone risk in the northeast Caribbean Sea and central North Atlantic tropics.

Neutral ENSO remains and the recent cooling trend toward La Nina temporarily slows. Once into the second half of August, +SOI is likely to return. A trend toward La Nina is indicated for Q4/2025. Whether the Nino34 SSTA can shift sufficiently cool and stay consistent to initiate La Nina is in question.

Hot weather emerges in Western Europe during early August beneath an amplified upper-level high-pressure ridge also causing widespread dryness across Europe to the Black Sea region which will worsen drought conditions.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, a Flood Watch is issued for excessive rainfall and severe storm threat for today. In high population centers of Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia dangerous flash flooding is possible late today/tonight!