12/01/2021, 8:05 am EST

21 Tropical Cyclones in 2021! Why Modern TC Climatology Is Rising.

The adjusted climatology (including 2021) for North Atlantic tropical cyclones maintains the more active 30-year values compared to the longer-term 50-year values. The number of tropical cyclones each season nowadays averages close 15 whereas the 50-year climatology is somewhat lower at 12.6 and 11.9 for 1950-2021.
11/29/2021, 5:13 am EST

Connecting Regional SSTA With Brazil/Argentina and Australia 15-Day Rainfall Outlooks

Regional SSTA patterns are attached to local weather regimes including Argentina/Brazil and Australia heading into meteorological summer in the southern hemisphere.
11/26/2021, 10:11 am EST

Cold Weather Watch Importance Increases Given Continued Covid Risk

Given the tendency for Covid-19 spread with established cold weather regimes in high population areas the importance of cold weather monitoring has (of course) increased. The 15-day outlook for Europe identifies an established cold weather risk which could be enhanced by developing snow cover and supported by a super negative Scandinavia Index pattern centered on days 6-10 ahead!
11/24/2021, 8:39 am EST

Stratospheric Warming Indicated Northwest North America In 15 Days

Agreement between both the GFS ENS and ECM ENS on stratospheric warming over northwestern portions of North America is indicated. Stratospheric warming indicates potential for arctic air development at ground level as the stratosphere warms and expands and the weather atmosphere beneath (troposphere) contracts and cools. Developing arctic air in 15 days can be difficult to project by operational models. However, the caveat 2 and caveat 3 version of the mega-cluster ensemble indicates arctic air is present and possibly heading for the U.S.