09/20/2022, 8:52 am EDT

Trouble Brewing in the Gulf of Mexico Next Week?

GFS and ECM are becoming consistent projecting a significant tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico next week. The latest GFS forecast indicates a major hurricane into the Florida Peninsula in 9-10 days and then roaring northward bringing wind and rain to the entire East Coast. Obviously, a long-range forecast but persistence of models and tendency for extreme weather events requires identifying the risk NOW. This system is in its infancy in the central North Atlantic tropics now.
09/15/2022, 12:32 pm EDT

Comparing NOAA and CIC Q4/2022 Climate Forecasts

In the Q4/2022 outlook, NOAA and CIC are agreeable on the temperature outlook which is broadly warmer than normal across most of the U.S. The precipitation outlook is agreeable on dryness across the South U.S. However, CIC is drier on each coast and wetter in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region.
09/14/2022, 8:15 am EDT

Wet Weather Helps River Levels This Week And Early Season Chill Follows in Europe

Pattern change emerges across Europe with significant rain on the front end likely helping low river levels particularly the Rhine River. Much cooler weather follows the rain for the medium-range with slight risk of <32F/0C in Eastern Europe.
09/09/2022, 1:41 pm EDT

Clearway Energy August 2022 Verification Report

U.S. VERIFICATION/Climate Summary for August 2022 Fig. 1: NOAA state rankings for temperature observed during August 2022. National discussion: In the U.S., August 2022 ranked 8th hottest on record although nighttime minimum temperatures averaged the warmest on record (Fig. 1). Eight states observed their hottest August on record including Washington, Oregon and Idaho plus New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and New Hampshire. During August, Mississippi observed their wettest late meteorological summer on record (Fig. 2). Nevada and Louisiana observed their 3rd wettest August on record. Overall, August 2022 ranked 19th wettest in the historical record. Fig. 2: NOAA state rankings for precipitation observed during August 2022. August 2022 verification discussion: The most prominent characteristic of the August climate pattern pertaining to renewable energy was the dramatic persistence of cloud cover due to the ongoing wet monsoon in the Southwest U.S. Of course, the evolving super-heat across California warranting excessive energy demand was the most prominent energy demand occurance of late meteorological summer. Anomalous high-pressure dominated the U.S. during late summer causing deficient wind speeds for power generation in many ket areas particulay the southwest Great Plains and western Texas. Zonal wind anomalies were generally lighter than normal for much of the South (Fig. 3) while meridional wind speed anomalies were also lighter than usual for most of the Southwest U.S. (Fig. 4). Comparing the experimental August 2022 forecast with observations yield excellent results in the Southwest U.S. where light wind was forecast (Fig. 5-6). However, the zonal wind speeds on the Gulf Coast were over-forecast. Fig. 3-4: Verification of the August 2022 zonal and meridional wind anomalies. Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company August 2022 zonal and meridional wind anomaly forecast. The above normal specific humidity (SH) values for both the lower and upper atmosphere were immense during August 2022. The 850 MB SH values were super-charged in the Southwest U.S. due to thunderstorms (Fig. 7). The high-level (300 MB) SH were above normal due to cirrus clouds extending eastward to the Gulf region from the Southwest coupled with locally generated convection (Fig. 8). The experimental 850/300 SH anomaly forecasts were not sufficiently wet (Fig. 9-10). The forecast did not accurately predict the above normal cloudiness hindering solar power generation in key Southwest and South U.S. locations. Fig. 7-8: Verification of the August 2022 low-level (850 MB) and high-level (300 MB) specific humidity to identify cloud presence. Fig. 9-10: The Climate Impact Company August 2022 forecast of 850 MB and 300 MB specific humidity.