More High Impact Weather: Drier Midwest Forecast, Europe Heatwave, SE Brazil Floods, and New Heat Australia

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Highlight: Midwest U.S. trend is drier, Europe heatwave shifts east next week, more heavy rains far Southeast Brazil, and an Australia heatwave ahead.

Fig. 1-2: The 15-day rainfall anomaly forecast across the U.S. AG Belt by ECM ENS and the 24-hour change.

Discussion: Late season drought concerns across the U.S. Corn Belt regenerate. After a wet threat indicated late last week, forecasts have shifted drier. The ECM ENS 15-day rainfall anomaly forecast is dry and shifting drier for most of the U.S. Corn Belt (Fig. 1-2). Heavy rain risk is confined to the west and southwest Great Plains.

In Europe, a late season heatwave for western and central sections lasts into early next week (Fig. 3). Temperatures reach the 90’s in many locations. In the 8-14-day period, the heat shifts east to the Black Sea region (Fig. 4). Heavy rains push across west to central portions of Europe as the heatwave fades beginning mid-to-late next week.

In South America, recent extreme rains across flooded Southeast Brazil shift slightly south and west over the next 10 days. ECM indicates more extreme rain centered just north of the Uruguay/Brazil state line and westward into Paraguay (Fig. 5).

An early season Australian heatwave is ahead! ECM ENS (and all other models) indicate anomalous hot weather evolves across the southern 2/3 of the country in the 8-14-day period (Fig. 6).

Fig. 3-4: GFS 1-7-day and 8-14-day temperature anomaly forecast across Europe and into Western Russia.

Fig. 5-6: ECM 10-day rainfall anomaly forecast across ARG/BRZ and the 8-14-day temperature anomaly forecast by ECM ENS across Australia.