11/29/2019, 8:19 am EST
The amount of rainfall to take the Australian drought out of the 10th driest percentile is a whopping 2 to 4 times normal across much of Eastern Australia.
11/21/2019, 11:33 am EST
A comparison betwen the constructed analog forecast produced by Climate Impact Company and the probabilistic climate forecast issued by NOAA/CPC for winter, spring and summer ahead.
11/14/2019, 8:17 am EST
Two climate alerts are issued. The positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole causing the Australian drought is beginning to ease increasing risk of returning beneficial rainfall late rthis summer season. A stratospheric warming event initiates in 10 days over Alaska and could cause an arctic outbreak in North America in early December.
11/11/2019, 12:25 pm EST
Extended-range forecast models are very warm across the U.S. However, a moderate-to-strong progressive Madden Julian oscillation, continued negative phase of the arctic oscillation and expanding snow cover implies and warm-ups will be brief and overall the U.S. stays cold into Thanksgiving week.
11/10/2019, 7:48 pm EST
The Great Plains soil moisture regime is historic wet right now caused by the wettest 12-month period on record for this region. A look back at the closest analog years reveals the most recent similarity is 2009 and most dramatic 1993. The consensus upper pattern for following winter certainly supports a prevailing cold U.S. pattern.
11/07/2019, 3:29 pm EST
The most striking soil moisture anomalies across the globe as of Nov. 1, 2019 is the historic wet signature across India (afte rthe latest wet monsoon on record) and drought signatures ove rparts of Brazi, Europe, South Africa and Australia.
11/05/2019, 8:57 am EST
The North American Multi-Ensemble (NMME) model global sea surface temperature (SSTA) anomaly forecast for DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20 identifies regions of climate influencers. The ENSO regime is neutral. There is no El Nino or La Nina for 2-4 months from now.
11/03/2019, 9:30 am EST
The season's first stratospheric warming event emerges the first halof of November peaking on November 10th and located over the northern North Atlantic basin. The most effective stratospheric warming events occur ove rthe polar region nevertheless this episode will enhance a cold pattern across North America and turn Europe stormy into mid-November.
11/01/2019, 7:40 am EDT
Research produced by the Auburn University School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences updated the long-known concept of increased drought risk caused by the combination of long-term rainfall deficits often revealed in lowering deep soil moisture AND short-term rainfall deficits commonly depicted with Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Using the methodology flash drought potential areas are identified in Brazil and Argentina.