June 2021 - Climate Impact Company

06/30/2021, 9:43 am EDT

Early Start To The Season In The Deep Tropics

Normally, threatening tropical waves for tropical cyclone development develop after August 1st. However, this year the deep tropics are looking active early! Tropical Disturbance 95L is approaching the Caribbean Sea and is encountering upper shear likely to prevent this system from organizing further.

06/29/2021, 5:06 am EDT

Southern Brazil Chill Reaches Southern Coffee Areas

Unseasonably cool air stretches across Argentina into southeastern Brazil this morning. On average, temperatures are 15-20F below normal across southwest and southeast Brazil to northern Argentina and >25F below normal over Paraguay. The far southern coffee crop area in southeastern Brazil is in the low 30’s/upper 20’s (-3C to -1C) toward dawn.

06/29/2021, 4:59 am EDT

Much of The U.S. Is In A Drought Or Has Drought Concerns Heading Into Mid-Summer

A review of rainfall needed to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index reveals much of the U.S. is either in a drought or has drought concerns as mid-summer approaches. The West/Northwest to North-central drought is historic. However, Florida has slipped into a harsh drought. Much of the Northeast and East also has significant rainfall shortages.

06/27/2021, 11:23 am EDT

Northwest U.S. Super-heat!

An Excessive Heat Warning continues in the Northwest U.S. stretching into parts of California and north to Calgary by tomorrow. Seattle, Portland and Spokane will break all-time records for the June 27-July 6 stretch.

06/22/2021, 9:10 am EDT

A Look At The North Atlantic Basin SSTA And Trend

The North Atlantic basin SSTA is +0.23C and slightly cooler (-0.07C) during the past week. The complexion of the North Atlantic SSTA is nearly opposite of this time last year. The North Atlantic tropics/subtropics are very close to normal in June 2021 while last year SSTA was somewhat warmer than normal.

06/22/2021, 8:03 am EDT

Oceanic Climate Signals Forecast Reference For Meteorologists/Traders/Analysts

El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) is often the most relied upon climate signal to project seasonal climate patterns all around the globe. ENSO is certainly important especially when stronger El Nino or La Nina are present. However, regional sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) patterns such as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), northeast Pacific “warm blob” and North Atlantic Warm Hole (NAWH) are increasingly relevant to generating climate forecasts.

06/21/2021, 12:15 pm EDT

Weak La Nina Trying to Return

Suddenly, both the Nino34 and Nino3 (east-central/east equatorial Pacific Ocean) regions cool to the La Nina threshold of -0.5C last week. The cooler SSTA are linked to cooler upper ocean heat in the east-central Pacific last week.

06/21/2021, 11:40 am EDT

Another Extreme Heat Event Ahead for the West

Re-emergence of another extreme hot weather event is forecast for this weekend in the Southwest U.S., California and the Northwest States. This time the peak heat, which could reach 120F occurs in northern California and the Interior Northwest States likely next Monday.

06/17/2021, 12:27 pm EDT

Western Heat/Drought Focus Continues, Expands to Northwest

Historic heat continues to worsen the extreme California/Great Basin/Southwest drought region. Longer-term, the anomalous heat and dryness is likely to focus on the Northwest States.

06/16/2021, 10:32 am EDT

Very Warm Waters Ahead of 92L in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Disturbance 92L is forecast to become a tropical storm by tomorrow night and north-northeastward into southwest Louisiana on Saturday. Northwest Gulf of Mexico waters are 85-86F which supports a hurricane. Tropical cyclone models are projecting a moderate-strength tropical storm. However, there is potential for an over-achieving system late this week in the northwest Gulf of Mexico.

06/15/2021, 5:14 am EDT

Rainfall Deficits Increasing Midwest, Northeast and Southeast

Rainfall required to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has increased in the Midwest States, Northeast region and the Southeast particularly Florida. Western deficits maintain their severe dry signatures. The North Dakota deficits eased last week.

06/13/2021, 3:12 pm EDT

Iowa Drying Out So Far in June

A new concern area is evolving drought in Iowa. Soil moisture is in deficit for the northern 2/3 of the state. In June so far, soil moisture trend is much drier for Iowa and southern Minnesota of the western Corn Belt.