Southern Brazil Chill Reaches Southern Coffee Areas

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Unseasonably cool air stretches across Argentina into southeastern Brazil this morning. On average, temperatures are 15-20F below normal across southwest and southeast Brazil to northern Argentina and >25F below normal over Paraguay. The far southern coffee crop area in southeastern Brazil is in the low 30’s/upper 20’s (-3C to -1C) toward dawn.

Fig. 1-2: GFS morning minimum temperature forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday in Brazil.

Brazil coffee freeze discussion: Unseasonably cool air stretches across Argentina into southeastern Brazil this morning. On average, temperatures are 15-20F below normal across southwest and southeast Brazil to northern Argentina and >25F below normal over Paraguay. The far southern coffee crop area in southeastern Brazil is in the low 30’s/upper 20’s (-3C to -1C) toward dawn (Fig. 1). Duration of the event is up to a few hours. By tomorrow morning temperatures are cold again although not quite as cold as this morning (Fig. 2).

Interestingly, as cold as it is now, very warm temperatures regenerate in the 6-10-day period across Argentina extending to Brazil in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 3).  The 15-day precipitation outlook is mostly to very dry across the growing areas of Argentina to Brazil (Fig. 4) as drought conditions in these areas continue (Fig. 5).

Fig. 3-4: The GFS 11-15-day temperature anomaly forecast and GFS ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across Argentina/Brazil.

Fig. 5: The South America soil moisture anomalies for 6/27/21.