01/31/2023, 4:22 pm EST
A much colder forecast as a vigorous upper trough across and to the east of the Black Sea region generates a chill that propels night temperatures into the 10-15F range at night in Ukraine and into Eastern Europe.
01/31/2023, 4:21 pm EST
A warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico implies low-level atmosphere moisture levels are abundant. When southerly flow from the Gulf interacts with mid-latitude storms heavy precipitation is likely centered on the East-central U.S. for late winter and into spring.
01/30/2023, 4:40 am EST
Where it rains, it pours is thematic of the Jan. 22-28 rainfall pattern across South America soybean, wheat and corn growing areas. Up to 4 in. of rain was observed in far northwestern Argentina and a small area near the Uruguay state line. However, forecasts are dry again for the Argentina drought region the next 10 days.
01/27/2023, 6:44 am EST
An exceptionally mild winter 2022-23 for New England but a brief period of arctic air visits later next week possibly for about 5 days. During that time Boston maximum temperatures could stay below freezing for up to 5 days including at least one night in the single digits.
01/27/2023, 5:54 am EST
Daily soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals erosion of the Argentina drought on the southern side of the affected area. Recent rainfall has been impressive in that zone. However, farther northward, the remainder of the Argentina drought area remains intact. A new area of drought concern is across the northwest and north Brazil Second Corn Crop zone. Deep layer soil moisture deficits have increased in the heart of the Argentina drought zone.
01/26/2023, 8:18 am EST
The U.S. outlook to close January and through the first third of February is trending less cold. The primary reason is an increased westerly component aloft in the medium-range forecast easing the cross-polar flow of arctic air and increasing the milder Pacific influence on the U.S. thermal pattern. As a result, heating degree days forecasts are trending lower.
01/24/2023, 6:01 pm EST
ENSO forecasts by leading models project El Nino by June 2023. Historically, when NOV/DEC/JAN are still in moderate La Nina phase, the chance that El Nino forms the following boreal summer season is only 25%
01/24/2023, 10:27 am EST
An impressive upper-level low-pressure trough rolls across Southern Europe the next week to 10 days delivering locally cold weather to Southwest Europe to France and gradually across much of Southern Europe. The upper trough combines with still unusually warm Mediterranean Sea SSTA to produce excessive rains across this region into early February extending to Southeast Europe.
01/23/2023, 3:09 pm EST
A colder pattern change is ahead for the U.S. Details remain uncertain as to the depth and expanse of the cold weather. ECM ENS has the best opinion of all models and by days 11-15 indicates sprawling cold across the U.S.
01/22/2023, 2:45 pm EST
The consensus of all forecast models U.S. gas population weight HDD projections through Feb. 9 yield a colder pattern ahead. National heating demand is certainly higher than normal for next week. However, note the discrepancy for next week as GFS forecasts near normal demand and GFS ENS/CMC ENS project significant heating demand. The national heating demand trend has increased since Friday for the Feb. 3-9 forecast.
01/21/2023, 9:17 am EST
Over the next 2-3 weeks a gradual expansion of snow cover for much of the northern half of the U.S. is expected. Meanwhile, stratospheric warming may shift from the Eurasian side of the North Pole to North America spawning arctic air. Forecast confidence is LOW for that part of the forecast. However, expanding snow cover will invite a cold February ahead.
01/17/2023, 5:42 pm EST
The 12Z ECM indicates a large area of stratospheric warming shifts from Eurasia/Siberia across Alaska and into the U.S. late in the 10-day forecast. ECM is the first model to identify and deliver an arctic air mass to the North-central U.S. on day-10.