News
01/11/2023, 8:01 am EST

La Nina Continues but Dissipation Expected by March and El Nino Risk is There for Second Half of 2023

La Nina is moderate strength right now. Weakening is expected. The weakening of La Nina occurs due to a transient tropical convection oscillation know as the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) which shuts down trade winds and allows warm subsurface waters to shift eastward from the equatorial subsurface near and west of the Dateline. The second of 4 expected MJO events is occurring now.
01/10/2023, 1:20 pm EST

The December 2022 U.S. Climate Rankings by State and the 2022 Annual State Rankings

The December 2022 U.S. Climate Rankings by State and the 2022 Annual State Rankings; Highlight: December arctic blast but month manages near normal.    Fig: 1: NOAA state rankings for temperature during December 2022. December 2022 U.S. climate rankings discussion: Remarkably, despite a harsh arctic outbreak in December, the U.S. temperature averaged almost exactly normal and ranked 64 (of 128 years) which is right in the middle (Fig. 1). The cold region was the Great Plains, Montana and Washington although not particularly impressive. Sixteen states were warmer than normal including MUCH ABOVE normal in Maine. The precipitation ranking was 35th wettest (of 128 years) and included the wettest December on record for North Dakota (Fig. 2). California to the North-central U.S. was wetter than normal while much of the Northeast Corridor was also wetter than normal. Only 5 states were drier than normal centered on the eastern Ohio Valley and Georgia/Florida. Fig: 2: NOAA state rankings for precipitation during December 2022. Annual 2022 U.S. climate rankings discussion: The contiguous U.S. ranked 18th warmest (of 128 years) in 2022. Many states were MUCH ABOVE normal including most of the West, Texas, Florida and the Northeast U.S. (Fig. 3). All states were warmer than normal except the Upper Midwest/Midwest States. The precipitation ranking was 27th driest (of 128 years) including MUCH BELOW normal precipitation in California, Nebraska, and Texas (Fig. 4). Of course, true of climate patterns during the climate change era, long-term climate across a region such as long-term dryness in California has encountered a historic wet regime so far in January. Most states were drier than normal in 2022. The wetter than normal states included North Dakota, Virginia and the central/northern Appalachian Mountains. Fig: 3: NOAA state rankings for temperature during the year of 2022. Fig: 4: NOAA state rankings for precipitation during the year of 2022.  
01/10/2023, 1:15 pm EST

The December 2022 U.S. Climate Rankings by State and the 2022 Annual State Rankings

Remarkably, despite a harsh arctic outbreak in December, the U.S. temperature averaged almost exactly normal and ranked 64 (of 128 years) which is right in the middle. The cold region was the Great Plains, Montana and Washington although not particularly impressive. Sixteen states were warmer than normal including MUCH ABOVE normal in Maine.
01/09/2023, 7:57 pm EST

Argentina Drought Surging; Western U.S. Short and Long-term Drought Fading

Large regional soil moisture changes during Q4/2022 favored wetter (12) vs. drier (8) trends. The most prominent wetter change is across the Western U.S. and that wetter transition has accelerated in January. The most dramatic dry trend is across Argentina where drought intensified.