05/20/2024, 2:23 pm EDT

Record Warm Sectors of the North Atlantic Basin Getting Warmer

The daily North Atlantic basin sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) is +0.94C and implies the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) is similar and therefore easily a record warm value for May. The North Atlantic basin has warmed 0.23C during the past 7 days. A primary contributor is the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index located across the main development region (MDR) for hurricanes. The daily TNA index is +1.46C maintaining the record warm signature in this part of the outer tropical North Atlantic basin.
05/20/2024, 11:41 am EDT

Oceanic AND Atmospheric ENSO is Neutral

The (Long Paddock) daily southern oscillation index (SOI) can tell us something about the atmospheric reaction to what’s going on within the ENSO System. El Nino ended recently, and neutral ENSO is in-place. We’re awaiting a transition to La Nina during the second half of the year although confidence in timing is LOW.
05/20/2024, 4:28 am EDT

More Planting Delays Due to Central U.S. Rains and Severe Weather

In the Central U.S., the 15-day forecast trend is wetter. The GFS ENS indicates 3-5-in. rainfall amount across the Upper Midwest and Mid-south States. Severe weather is involved with the wet forecast and likely forces agriculture delays. The 24-hour change is wetter for both heavy rain regions.