May 2024 - Page 2 of 4 - Climate Impact Company

05/17/2024, 5:57 am EDT

Explaining the Complex South America and Europe/Russia Weather Pattern During May 2024

A combination of new and established marine heat waves were significant contributors to an upper air pattern responsible for delivering historic flooding in far southeastern Brazil and equally impressive cold in Western Russia during the past 2-3 weeks. An emerging and progressive convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation should ease this pattern during late May.

05/16/2024, 5:40 am EDT

Lighter Than Normal Windspeeds Forecast for U.S. during June/July 2024

High pressure is forecast to extend across much of the West U.S. during JUN/JUL 2024 with a weak upper trough in the East. The combination of these two pressure centers will leave most of the U.S. with below normal wind speeds for the first half of summer 2024. There are a few exceptions such as Northern California, Southern Texas, and the Carolinas where wind speeds are greater than normal.

05/16/2024, 5:32 am EDT

AI Defeats ECM ENS in 11-15-day Outlook

Given the distinct cool West and warm East U.S. temperature signature of meteorological spring 2024 surprising was the sudden amplified upper trough in the East U.S. via an 11-15-day forecast by the AI 4Cast.Net V2 outlook issued on April 28th. The AI-generated forecast easily defeated operational models.

05/15/2024, 9:20 am EDT

The 2024 Severe Weather Season So Far; Second-most Tornadoes

As of mid-May, the U.S. severe weather season has produced the second-most number of tornadoes so far, and second only to 2011. The upper air pattern during MAR/APR/MAY 2024 (so far) has featured a persistent upper trough over the Southwest U.S. forcing the subtropical jet (STJ) stream to arc northeastward across Mexico to the Southeast U.S. inspiring low-level jet (LLJ) streams forcing buoyant moisture northward from the warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico. The intersection of the upper-level high wind band over a lower atmosphere channel of warm moist air is causal to severe weather.

05/14/2024, 1:40 pm EDT

First Major U.S. Heatwave of Season Ahead for Texas

The first major heatwave of the season in the U.S. is ahead for Texas next week. The heat dome over Mexico during springtime amplifies and causes hot and humid conditions across Texas next week. Widespread 90’s with 100’s southwest state is likely. Heat indices are well above 100F.

05/14/2024, 6:03 am EDT

Fine Line for Wet Vs. Dry in Central U.S. Summer 2024?

Is the wet May pattern in the eastern half of the U.S. anomalous? No, the wet pattern is likely to continue during the summer months for much of the eastern half of the nation. Tricky is the wet East/dry West dividing line as relevant to U.S. Crop Areas. The U.S. Corn Belt and soybean growing areas may be centered on that dividing line which can cause havoc to agriculture analysts, planners, and traders as crop conditions vary widely.

05/13/2024, 10:59 am EDT

Officially, ENSO Phase is Neutral

Last week the Nino34 SSTA dipped below the (+0.5C) El Nino threshold. ENSO is now officially in neutral phase. Only the Nino4 SSTA region (near the Dateline) is above the El Nino threshold.

05/13/2024, 10:52 am EDT

Tropical Feature: Suddenly, the Gulf of Mexico is warming rapidly.

In the Gulf of Mexico, rapid warming has occurred. The basin average is a robust warm +1.14C which is almost 1C warmer than one month ago. The Gulf of Mexico warming is likely attributed to the nearby Mexico heatwave and attendant strong upper-level subtropical ridge.

05/12/2024, 11:50 am EDT

Excessive Rains Continue Southeast Brazil

In Southeast Brazil, the 15-day forecast is unrelenting as more excessive rain is indicated. GFS projects >10 in. of rain during the next 15 days in Southeast Brazil. The widespread damaging flooding episode in the Southeast Brazil State of Rio Grande Do Sul began in late April and will continue well into May.

05/10/2024, 12:03 pm EDT

Late Season Cold Burst into Southwest Russia

During early May a cold upper trough across Northwest Russia intensified leading to an unusually cold outbreak of air which shifted southward into Russia’s wheat belt peaking in intensity earlier this week. The wintery chill extended southward over bare ground causing damage to the spring and winter wheat growing areas in Southwest Russia.

05/10/2024, 8:47 am EDT

Over 1,000 Severe Weather Reports Past 2 Days Most of Which Were Hail Damage

The severe weather outbreaks of the past 2 days produced a rare excessive amount of hail damage reports (538) centered on Texas yesterday and the Missouri Valley on Wednesday. Damaging wind was focused on the southeast quadrant of the U.S. while Wednesday’s tornadoes were mostly focused on Southern Illinois and Southeast Missouri.

05/09/2024, 9:24 am EDT

May 8 Busiest Day of Severe Weather Season So Far

Yesterday’s severe weather outbreak across the Midwest States to the Carolinas was the strongest of 2024 so far. Featured were 575 severe weather reports of which 341 were damaging hail, roughly 60% of all reports.