Late Season Cold Burst into Southwest Russia

Fig. 1-3: May 1-7, 2024 temperature anomalies across Western Russia are very cold thanks to a deep upper trough well represented by a negative Scandinavia index pattern.

Discussion: During early May a cold upper trough across Northwest Russia intensified leading to an unusually cold outbreak of air which shifted southward into Russia’s wheat belt peaking in intensity earlier this week. The wintery chill extended southward over bare ground causing damage to the spring and winter wheat growing areas in Southwest Russia. The departure from normal for West-central Russia for May so far has averaged near -10C north of Caspian Sea (Fig. 1) peaking at 15C below normal in this zone on the 4^th while at the same time departures of 10C below normal slammed Southwest Russia causing the widespread freeze. An immense upper trough in Northwest Russia is responsible for this cold (Fig. 2). The cold trough in this location is characteristic of the negative phase of the Scandinavia index which peaked at -5 on May 8^th (Fig. 3). The 15-day SCAND forecast reveals fading negative phase which should ease the cold weather risk. Temperatures were below freezing in Southwest Russia this morning. Forecasts indicate low temperatures near 2C for late weekend/early next week in this area. Moderation will follow.