December 2021 - Climate Impact Company

12/30/2021, 3:58 pm EST

ECMWF Snowfall Forecasts in the East Through 10 Days

Inevitable is the evolution of a snowy pattern Central to Northeast U.S. given the large cold air source region in Western Canada to the North-central U.S. The clash of that cold with milder temperatures in the East means snow or rain-to-snow events from Kansas to New England in the 10-day outlook.

12/30/2021, 3:45 pm EST

December 2021 Pattern Eases West U.S. Drought

December 2021 upper air 500 MB height anomalies identify the prevailing weather pattern. A West Coast upper trough propels a stormy regime. In the East both the polar and subtropical jet streams arc into a ridge position bringing historic warmth. Note the upper air pattern runs parallel to the regional SSTA regimes in the northeast Pacific and western North Atlantic.

12/28/2021, 12:54 pm EST

Sneaky Cold New York/New England Next TUE/WED!

Arctic air in Western Canada to the northern Great Plains means potential for sneaky cold anywhere that has snow cover. The 12Z GFS indicates a pulse of arctic air across New York/New England next TUE/WED!

12/28/2021, 4:57 am EST

The Climate Drivers Leading to Historic Flooding in Brazil

To the north of a blocking high-pressure system stretched west-to-east across southern portions of South America, two cutoff upper-level low-pressure systems have formed. One low is southeast of Brazil and is causing historic rainfall across Brazil. A second upper low is off the West Coast of South America causing the heavy rain pattern to arc westward. The upper-level features are reflected in the regional SSTA pattern. These conditions are likely to last into January causing more excessive rainfall in Brazil.

12/27/2021, 1:13 pm EST

NCEP CFS V2 Model Delays La Nina Dissipation Until JUN/JUL 2022

The NCEP CFS V2 forecast model delays La Nina dissipation until early summer 2021 (in the northern hemisphere). Previously, La Nina was forecast to dissipate by MAR/APR 2022.

12/27/2021, 8:38 am EST

Weekly Gas Population Week HDD Observations for December/January Forecast

The Climate Impact Company 4-week gas population weight observed weekly HDD anomalies identifiers the warm December but is trending toward a colder scenario in January.

12/22/2021, 9:02 am EST

Northeast Argentina/Southeast Brazil Drought Concerns

While much of Brazil has been soaking wet in recent months, the southeast has remained mostly dry. Additionally, long-term rainfall deficits imply deep layer soil moisture dryness. Northeast Argentina is trending very dry and hot to help accelerate drought concerns.

12/22/2021, 8:36 am EST

Warm Winter 2021-22 U.S. HDD Forecast

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast is exceptionally warm for winter 2021-22. The problem is the high energy demand Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States are generally quite mild this winter limiting heating demand in that region while other sectors such as the West and North-central States can be very cold. The impact of sensible weather is driven by population.

12/20/2021, 8:24 am EST

NOAA (and CIC) Climate Outlooks Review

A review of the NOAA/CPC long-lead climate outlooks issued late last week compared to Climate Impact Company (for January).

12/16/2021, 2:01 pm EST

Most Hurricane Force Gusts in One Day in U.S. History

According to NOAA, the U.S. set a record yesterday for most observed gusts >hurricane force (74 mph), just 5 days since the historic tornado outbreak on December 10th. According to NOAA, more than 55 reports of gusts >74 mph were observed in Midwestern States. According to NOAA, the previous record was 53 reports set on August 10, 2020 (period of record 2004-2021).

12/16/2021, 10:00 am EST

South America Drought Concern Continues to Evolve

The morning weather satellite picture across South America identifies the prevailing early meteorological summer pattern. A persistent upper trough extending from well east of Uruguay to northeast Brazil maintains a wet pattern for much of Brazil. However, trailing the upper trough, an upper ridge brings a dry climate pattern to Argentina to far Southeast Brazil.

12/15/2021, 11:15 am EST

Southeast Brazil to Northeast Argentina Drought Development Underway

We're in a pattern that may last well into summer...semi-permanent low-pressure east-southeast of Brazil and an attendant upper trough extending northwestward into Brazil causing steady rainfall compensated for by atmospheric subsidence causing dryness and heat in Southeast Brazil to Northeast Argentina raising drought concerns there.