News
12/13/2021, 7:25 pm EST

Cool Support for La Nina East Pacific Subsurface Remains BUT West Pacific Is Warming!

The MJO has been mostly dormant in the vicinity of Indonesia or westward since October. However, a slow eastward shift with intensification is underway the past 1-2 weeks. MJO has shifted toward the Pacific Dateline and a further eastward drift is indicated through the middle third of December. Upper ocean heat in the equatorial West Pacific is responding as warmth increases and shifts to the Dateline.
12/12/2021, 10:24 am EST

TRYING to Explain the December 10, 2021 Tornado Outbreak

A rare super-outbreak of violent tornadoes occurred December 10, 2021. There were two primary tornado "lines". One stretched from eastern Missouri to east-central Illinois while a second began in northeast Arkansas and reached southwest Kentucky. The second line featured (potentially) the longest path of one tornado on record. The violent weather was caused by interaction with the East Pacific tropics, Gulf of Mexico and cold snow-covered areas to the north and enhanced by a vigorous jet stream and low-level jet out of the western Gulf.
12/11/2021, 10:48 am EST

Strong Cold Front East. Major Winter Storm West Coast.

A strong cold front brings widespread high wind from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast today while a series of winter storms are ahead in the West, most focused on California.
12/10/2021, 8:11 am EST

La Nina Peaks in January; El Nino risk late 2022.

La Nina 2021-22 peaks in January and fades to neutral phase during Q2/2022. El Nino risk is indicated for late 2022. The PDO regime which tends to run parallel to ENSO stays in the cool phase but is weaker for much of 2022. The North Atlantic warmth is likely to continue and be stronger than indicated by the analog forecast.