ECMWF Snowfall Forecasts in the East Through 10 Days

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Inevitable is the evolution of a snowy pattern Central to Northeast U.S. given the large cold air source region in Western Canada to the North-central U.S. The clash of that cold with milder temperatures in the East means snow or rain-to-snow events from Kansas to New England in the 10-day outlook.

Fig. 1: ECMWF projects Saturday/January 1st snowfall.

Discussion: Modified arctic air surges southward through the western Great Plains late tomorrow night and initiates a broad area of snowfall. Quickly, the snow spreads east to southern Iowa/northern Missouri by midday Saturday. By tomorrow evening, snowfall extends from Kansas to Michigan. Windy causes some blowing and drifting. By midnight a general 3-6 in. snowfall extends from Kansas to northwest of Chicago (Fig. 1).

During the first half of Sunday, the Midwest snowfall extends northeastward from the Ohio Valley to southern Quebec. A new area of sleet and snow develops in the northwest Tennessee Valley early Sunday afternoon. Snow extends from the Tennessee Valley to New England (away from the coast) Sunday afternoon. Snow in New England Sunday night is minimal but the southern portion of the snowfall zone stays intact shifting across Virginia early Monday. The 24-hour snowfall forecast valid to dawn Monday indicates patchy 2-4 in. areas including eastern Virginia for an event 4-7AM on Monday (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2: ECMWF projects Sunday/Sunday night (Jan. 2-3) snowfall.

The next storm develops TUE/WED in the western Great Plains and expands eastward quickly. A significant storm system forms on a cold front unloading 10-15 in. of snow in northeast Ohio/western New York by next Thursday night (Fig. 3). Into the weekend after next the storm strengthens and produces widespread heavy snows in New England (Fig. 4).

Fig. 3: ECMWF projects 48-hour snowfall valid for WED/THU of next week.

Fig. 4: ECMWF projects 48-hour snowfall valid for late in the 6-10-day period across New England.