High pressure ridging across a region of developing shallow soil moisture deficit where deep layer soil moisture deficit already exits indicates a flash drought risk.

The Climate Impact Company U.S. population weight CDD anomaly forecast for each of the next 4 weeks indicates moderately to much higher than normal cooling demand.

Upper ocean heat anomalies became boldly negative east of the Dateline in the equatorial Pacific Ocean last month. Implied was plenty of support for La Nina ahead. However, the past couple weeks have observed the cool anomalies staring to weaken indicating and La Nina ahead would be brief and weak.

Presence of aerosol/dust extending westward via the trade winds from the African deserts is a suppressing factor on tropical wave development in the North Atlantic tropics. Currently, heavy dust is projected today into the Caribbean Sea while the origin in West Africa remains prominent.

The Indian Monsoon arrived on-time (June 1st). However, a much wetter than normal character has emerged likely to continue the remainder of June. Last week heavy rains affected the west coast, central and northeast India and the latest 15-day rainfall anomaly forecast by the GFS maintains excessive rainfall for much of the nation into early July.

Late May Europe soil moisture was scary-dry! However, early-to-middle June brought pattern change...a much wetter climate. 10-day forecasts maintain the wet weather pattern across Europe easing the drought risk present in late May.

Central U.S. seasonal soil moisture trend is notably drier. Occasional hot and dry weather events will accelerate the dryness. A period of hot weather is ahead late weekend and next week for the central and southern Great Plains further aggravating the drier soil trend for much of that region.

The vast majority of soils across the globe are wetter than normal which is rare during the modern climate pattern. In North America there remain wet soil regions in the Central and East U.S. although the Great Plains trend is mostly drier. The East/Southeast U.S. is trending wetter. Much of Mexico is now trending wetter. In South America a wet trend developed across Western Brazil while central Argentina and the southern Chilean Drought Area turned wetter.

The forecast intensity has increased now indicating 20 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes. The season is projected as the busiest since 2010 and 2012. The accumulated cyclone energy index is raised to 149. Several hurricanes are forecast to affect the Gulf of Mexico, at least one making landfall in the Carolinas and several developing near the Bahamas but staying offshore.