News
06/22/2020, 12:34 pm EDT

Tracking The African Dust Clouds Across the North Atlantic

Presence of aerosol/dust extending westward via the trade winds from the African deserts is a suppressing factor on tropical wave development in the North Atlantic tropics. Currently, heavy dust is projected today into the Caribbean Sea while the origin in West Africa remains prominent.
06/17/2020, 7:50 am EDT

MJO Phase_2 Soaks India and Roasts Australia

The Indian Monsoon arrived on-time (June 1st). However, a much wetter than normal character has emerged likely to continue the remainder of June. Last week heavy rains affected the west coast, central and northeast India and the latest 15-day rainfall anomaly forecast by the GFS maintains excessive rainfall for much of the nation into early July.
06/15/2020, 8:17 am EDT

Europe Avoids Early Summer Drought Thanks to June Rains.

Late May Europe soil moisture was scary-dry! However, early-to-middle June brought pattern change...a much wetter climate. 10-day forecasts maintain the wet weather pattern across Europe easing the drought risk present in late May.
06/14/2020, 10:40 am EDT

AG Hot Spot: Drought monitoring west/southwest Great Plains.

Highlight: Flash Drought Potential is Reliant on the Presence of Deep Layer Soil Moisture Deficit; West/Southwest Great Plains Threatened Fig. 1: The 9-month soil moisture anomalies valid 9/11/19 to 6/11/20 identify two areas of important dryness…Great Basin and Kansas. Discussion: In recently published research in the Journal of Climate Science (May 2019) by the Auburn University School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences emphasized was the requirement of deep root/deep layer soil moisture deficits as a required presence causing increased flash drought risk. Deep layer soil moisture deficit during summer caused by a long-term dry climate pattern followed by a period of summer dryness and heat can cause fast-evolving drought conditions. The most recent example was across southeast Brazil during their late summer/early autumn season. Fig. 2: This week’s daily max/min forecast compared to normal for Dodge City, KS. Fig. 3: This week’s average day and night wind and daily peak gust (mph) forecast for Dodge City, KS. Currently, deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture deficits are located in west-central and west Kansas to the Oklahoma Panhandle (Fig. 1). Shallow layer soil moisture deficits are marginally dry but trending drier. This week this zone encounters hot weather which will further dry-out top soils. The daily max/min forecast (Fig. 2) reveals steady heat coupled with warm night’s through at least Friday. On average temperatures are averaging 10F (or more) warmer each day. The anomalous warmth is coupled by steady moderate-to-high wind (Fig. 3). Each day this week the sustained wind from the south is in the 17-25 mph range (and sometimes higher during the day) with frequent gusts near or above 40 mph. As effective as hot and dry weather and subtracting soil moisture is the presence of a steady high wind. The rainfall forecast is interesting. Forecast models are in agreement that the west/southwest Great Plains are very dry this week. However, the GFS and ECM are different in the medium-range forecast. The generally higher skill ECM is somewhat drier than GFS which trends precipitation to near or above normal for the last third of June (Fig. 4). Fig. 4: Comparing the GFS and ECM Ensemble percent of normal rainfall forecasts for West-central Kansas the next 15 days. Summary: Given the deep layer soil moisture deficits in the west/southwest Great Plains, the already emerging hot and windy weather for this week and the potential for limited rainfall in the medium-range the hard red winter wheat zone requires close monitoring for flash drought risk heading toward mid-summer.