MJO Phase_2 Soaks India and Roasts Australia

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Discussion: The Indian Monsoon arrived on-time (June 1st). However, a much wetter than normal character has emerged likely to continue the remainder of June. Last week heavy rains affected the west coast, central and northeast India (Fig. 1) and the latest 15-day rainfall anomaly forecast by the GFS maintains excessive rainfall for much of the nation into early July (Fig. 2). The rainfall is made heavy by presence of heavy convection across warmer-than-normal waters of the west and central equatorial Indian Ocean. The heavy convection in the deep tropics contributing to the wet monsoon is characteristic of Madden Julian oscillation phase_2.

Fig. 1-2: Last week the Indian Monsoon was very wet enhanced by presence of MJO phase_2. The 15-day outlook maintains a wet monsoon regime across India.

MJO phase_2 has also caused a strong high pressure area to evolve over Northern Australia causing emerging heat last week (Fig. 3) likely to amplify this week. The 5-day maximum temperature anomaly forecast indicates widespread potential record heat (Fig. 4).

Fig. 3-4: Areas of hot weather developed last week in Australia due to a strong northern Australia high pressure caused by presence of MJO phase_2. The daytime heat is excessive the next 5 days with records possible.

Fig. 5: MJO phase_2 is indicated by heavy convection (green) in the west/central Indian Ocean helping to enhance the Indian Monsoon while Australia is hot and dry. The MJO is forecast to shift east and weaken in early-to-middle July.