April 2020 - Climate Impact Company

04/30/2020, 8:04 am EDT

Is The Dramatic Dry Soil Moisture Change in the Midwest Going to Continue into Summer?

Soil moisture remains above normal to excessive across the U.S. agriculture belts BUT below normal precipitation the past 90+ days centered on the Corn Belt especially in April is leading to easing of the wet soils (and this pattern may continue).

04/29/2020, 10:45 am EDT

Slow-moving Severe Weather/Excessive Rainfall Event into the East

An intense upper trough over the Tennessee Valley shifts east slowly causing more severe storms in the Southeast and excessive rainfall Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States. Flood watch areas are posted for the entire Mid-Atlantic region.

04/28/2020, 12:49 pm EDT

Australia Bureau of Meteorology ENSO and IOD Update

Forecast confidence is increasing in regard to negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole developing for Australian winter which supports a wet climate across most Australian crop areas.

04/27/2020, 8:59 am EDT

Developing Deep Layer Soil Moisture Deficit and Late Summer Dryness/Heat Caused Southeast Brazil Flash Drought

The synoptic climate details enabling the dry pattern in Southeast Brazil were caused by two regimes…a moist northeast trade wind flow into Northeast Brazil and reaching Central Brazil caused by the negative phase of the Atlantic meridional mode (-AMM) and by the prevailing (dry) land breeze across Southeast Brazil trailing a persistent deep upper trough east of Uruguay.

04/23/2020, 4:38 pm EDT

Heavy Rain Set-up for the Midwest/Northeast U.S. Corridor

Forecast trend of many operational forecast models is too lift the excessive rainfall/flash flood and severe weather pattern established across the Gulf region farther north to the Midwest U.S. extending to the Northeast Corridor to finish April and begin the month of May.

04/19/2020, 11:35 am EDT

Another Life Threatening Severe Weather/Flash Flood event East Texas to Southeast U.S.

Another California upper trough has shifted east, similar to last week at this time and the same result will occur…entrainment of unusually warm Gulf of Mexico moisture (into the trough) and catalyst for another exceptional severe weather/excessive rainfall event.

04/19/2020, 9:49 am EDT

Unique: Very Warm Gulf of Mexico and Tropical North Atlantic Ahead of the 2020 Tropical Cyclone Season

Unique to 2020, the pre-tropical cyclone season sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are unusually warm in both the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical/subtropical North Atlantic basin in-between the eastern Caribbean Sea and northwest coast of Africa. Implied is abundant (unprecedented?) upper ocean/surface heating to cause passing tropical cyclones to intensify dramatically (assuming the proper upper air patterns).

04/14/2020, 12:50 pm EDT

Indian Ocean Dipole Outlook: Possible Negative Phase by July

An emerging negative Indian Ocean Dipole for JUL/AUG is (now) forecast by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. -IOD favors a wetter winter climate pattern across Australia likely easing any remaining drought across the continent.

04/12/2020, 8:38 am EDT

The Gulf States, Southeast U.S. And East Coast Severe Weather Episode April 12-13

The eastern two-thirds of the U.S. is affected by an unusually strong springtime storm the next 2 days featuring heavy snow and high wind leading to blizzard conditions in the Upper Midwest, a hot high wind pushing southern Texas to near 100 today, a wide area of tornadoes starting in Texas this morning and expanding to the Southeast U.S. and Tennessee Valley later today and tonight and high wind on the East Coast tomorrow.

04/07/2020, 9:42 am EDT

Global Soil Moisture Report: One of the wettest seasonal change analysis on record.

Widespread wet changes to global soil moisture during quarter 1 of 2020 was observed including each continent except South America where widespread drier trends were identified.

04/03/2020, 7:14 am EDT

North Atlantic 2020 Tropical Cyclone Season Forecast: Busy season; significant coastal threats.

A dangerous tropical cyclone season is ahead for the North Atlantic basin. A warm North Atlantic coupled with a potential weak La Nina is the recipe for an active season with above average number of hurricanes. Climate Impact Company projects a blocking high pressure over northeastern North America during peak of season which could cause systems near the U.S. East Coast to turn inland.