Soil moisture remains above normal to excessive across the U.S. agriculture belts BUT below normal precipitation the past 90+ days centered on the Corn Belt especially in April is leading to easing of the wet soils (and this pattern may continue).
An intense upper trough over the Tennessee Valley shifts east slowly causing more severe storms in the Southeast and excessive rainfall Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States. Flood watch areas are posted for the entire Mid-Atlantic region.
Forecast confidence is increasing in regard to negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole developing for Australian winter which supports a wet climate across most Australian crop areas.
The synoptic climate details enabling the dry pattern in Southeast Brazil were caused by two regimes…a moist northeast trade wind flow into Northeast Brazil and reaching Central Brazil caused by the negative phase of the Atlantic meridional mode (-AMM) and by the prevailing (dry) land breeze across Southeast Brazil trailing a persistent deep upper trough east of Uruguay.