Is The Dramatic Dry Soil Moisture Change in the Midwest Going to Continue into Summer?

The focus of flooding rainfall and severe weather has been on the Mid-South and Southeast U.S. since late winter leaving the Midwest States including the Corn Belt on the dry side. Consequently the excessive soil moisture (according to Palmer Drought Severity Index) has eased to marginally wet for most of the Corn Belt, remaining “Extremely Moist” in South Dakota to Michigan and becoming (extremely moist) from the southeast Great Plains to the Tennessee Valley. Will the drier trend continue for the Corn Belt? From a climate signal point of view that question is mostly related to the northeast Pacific Ocean and North Atlantic basin SSTA regime. The Pacific decadal oscillation has entered the cool phase (may not last) while a strong warm Atlantic Multi-decadal oscillation is in-place. Research has shown that a +AMO is supportive of a drier than normal warm season (MAY-SEP) in the Corn Belt. The PDO can contribute to that drier regime but the +AMO is strongly supportive. No Corn Belt flooding like last year and the current dry trend could continue.