April 2021 - Climate Impact Company

04/30/2021, 9:08 am EDT

The Warm Tropical North Atlantic Index

The 50-year climatology for tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Basin is 12.4 tropical storms, 6.4 hurricanes and 2.5 intense hurricanes. The accumulated cyclone energy index is 99.2. During the past 25 years the climatology is somewhat stronger numbers...15.3 tropical storms, 7.6 hurricanes and 3.4 intense hurricanes. ACE index is 125.8. Why are the numbers higher?

04/28/2021, 9:24 am EDT

Hot Spikes Beginning, One For Mid-Atlantic Next Week

There are hot spots in the 10-day forecast, most of them in Texas. The Desert Southwest into southern California is also hot at times. A heat spike is projected for the Mid-Atlantic States May 4th when temperatures surge into the 90’s!

04/26/2021, 10:27 am EDT

Tracking the North Atlantic SSTA Ahead of TC Season

A weekly review of the North Atlantic SSTA pattern as tropical cyclone season approaches is underway. Currently, the North Atlantic basin averages +0.55C which is somewhat warmer than normal. Most of the anomalous warmth is in the Gulf of Mexico, the subtropics and middle latitudes. The tropics are generally near normal except for sudden and recent warming of the far eastern tropical North Atlantic.

04/25/2021, 9:15 pm EDT

An Update On The Solar Cycle 25 Forecast

According to NASA, solar cycle 25 began last September as solar minima ending the solar cycle 24 was completed. We’re currently on the uptick in sunspot activity as solar cycle 25 begins to strengthen. The latest NASA forecast indicates solar cycle 25 will peak around 2025 at sunspot number 120.

04/25/2021, 9:59 am EDT

Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum To Flip Negative

A strong Madden Julian oscillation shifts east into the equatorial Atlantic/Africa sector and weakens. The heat release pole ward warms the northern latitude mid-atmosphere and the declining latitudinal thermal gradient should slow the jet stream making trough/ridge patterns more likely to occur.

04/25/2021, 9:53 am EDT

The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI): A Brief Overview and Discussion

Predicting the onset, severity, and duration of drought remains a challenge due to the number of interconnected variables that contribute to drought evolution and recovery (e.g., soil moisture, soil type, vegetation, land-use, topography, antecedent vegetative state/stress levels, and atmospheric circulation). The interactions among these variables span spatial and temporal scales, increasing the complexity of drought prediction.

04/22/2021, 8:19 am EDT

Madden Julian Oscillation Is Influential Now

During northern hemisphere spring La Nina events have a tendency to weaken. The weakening is caused by eastward transition of the Madden Julian oscillation, an area of heavy tropical convection from very warm waters in the West Pacific tropics eastward and erasing the La Nina-biased cool waters of the tropical East Pacific. A MAJOR effort on the part of the MJO takes place the next 2 weeks.

04/19/2021, 2:29 pm EDT

Another Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclone That Passed Very Warm Ocean Water

We’ve seen a plethora of category-5 major tropical cyclones in recent years including Surigae to the east of the Philippines yesterday. In each case, the tropical cyclone intensified rapidly due to passage over warm water plumes.

04/19/2021, 2:24 pm EDT

New NOAA Drought Index: Evaporative Demand Drought Index

The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporation demand is for a given location and across a time period of interest according to NOAA. Atmospheric evaporation demand is often referred to as “the thirst of the atmosphere”. The timescale of this index can vary to capture drying dynamics that themselves operate at different timescales.

04/16/2021, 8:28 am EDT

Rapidly Warming Gulf of Mexico Contributes to Louisiana Storms/Flooding

Severe flooding continues to occur across rain-soaked Louisiana. River flooding will expand across most of Louisiana and southern Mississippi today. Another day of excessive rainfall and severe weather already underway will intensify drifting eastward across Louisiana into southern Mississippi and coastal Alabama today.

04/16/2021, 7:51 am EDT

Cool Phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Strengthens

Dr. Nate Mantua, PDO Expert at the NOAA/NMFS Southwest Fisheries Science Center reports that the March 2021 Pacific decadal oscillation index was -1.17 which represents moderate-to-strong cool phase. During March the -PDO regime present since early last year intensified to the strongest level during this 14-15 month-long cool regime.

04/15/2021, 9:34 am EDT

NOAA Long-lead Forecasts Through The Warm Season

The latest NOAA/CPC long-lead probability forecasts for the U.S. for the month ahead (May) and seasonal (MAY/JUN/JUL) outlook indicates EXTREME climate risk ahead!