Tracking the North Atlantic SSTA Ahead of TC Season

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A weekly review of the North Atlantic SSTA pattern as tropical cyclone season approaches is underway. Currently, the North Atlantic basin averages +0.55C which is somewhat warmer than normal. Most of the anomalous warmth is in the Gulf of Mexico, the subtropics and middle latitudes. The tropics are generally near normal except for sudden and recent warming of the far eastern tropical North Atlantic.

Fig. 1: The North Atlantic SSTA analysis from a few days ago.

Discussion: A weekly review of the North Atlantic SSTA pattern as tropical cyclone season approaches is underway. Currently, the North Atlantic basin averages +0.55C which is somewhat warmer than normal (Fig. 1). Most of the anomalous warmth is in the Gulf of Mexico, the subtropics and middle latitudes. The tropics are generally near normal except for sudden and recent warming of the far eastern tropical North Atlantic. The 30-day trend is warmer off the northwest coast of Africa and to the southwest of Europe. The Gulf of Mexico is also trending warmer. Either side of Bermuda is a little cooler the past 30 days and the tropics near and east of the Windward/Leeward Islands is also a little cooler in April. The North Atlantic basin is trending warmer, a 30-day change of +0.20C. The April 2021 North Atlantic SSTA regime is not as warm as last year at this time.