12/30/2023, 7:51 am EST

Graph Cast AI-Generated SLP Forecasts Continue To Out-Perform Conventional Models

Based on Climate Impact Company review (so far), Graph Cast AI-generated day-10 SLP forecasts are consistently out-performing GFS and ECM. The latest important example was Graph Cast AI doubting risk of arctic air across Southern Canada and possibly into the U.S. (associated with a stratospheric warming event).
12/28/2023, 8:26 am EST

Doubting U.S. Arctic Air Threat Although West Is Colder In 11-15 Days

Energy markets grapple with risk of arctic air intrusion to the U.S. in 10+ days due to presence of a stratospheric warming event emerging over Eurasia over the next week or so, shifting into northwest North America in 10 days, and likely collapsing in 15 days (according to NOAA/CPC).
12/27/2023, 3:29 am EST

A Short Summary of AI in Weather Prediction and Its Use as a Tool for Forecast Development

AI-driven weather forecast models show strong achievement in reducing the amount of time required to create a weather forecast, as the models are not driven by the computationally demanding fundamental equations of the atmosphere like NWP. However, like NWP, weather forecasts generated by AI-driven models struggle with forecast accuracy at longer lead times, due to the iterative approach of weather forecasting to atmospheric variables that are chaotic and stochastic. 
12/26/2023, 2:49 pm EST

What A Rapidly Decelerating El Nino Brings To Major Crop Areas During MAR/APR/MAY and JUN/JUL/AUG 2024

Based on a MEI-driven constructed analog, drought concern for MAR/APR/MAY 2024 are likely for Brazil, Southeast Asia, the Mid-south U.S., and developing in U.K. plus the Black Sea region to West-central Russia. During JUN/JUL/AUG 2024, drought is likely to continue in the Black Sea region to West-central Russia, the British Isles, Western Tennessee Valley, and emerge in the Northeast U.S. Dryness shifts south back into Argentina during JUN/JUL/AUG 2024.