We’ve watched the GFS project arctic air for the extended-range for about one week generally indicating high intensity but mostly confined to the Central U.S. Last night the GFS indicated the arctic air may stretch into the East with intensity but most models continued to doubt that scenario. This afternoon the ECMWF forecast projects super cold arctic air into the central U.S. next weekend shifting east and southeast with authority for early next week.

The overnight GFS Operational Model indicates a frigid arctic outbreak into the U.S. in the 11-15 day period. The U.S. gas population weight heating degree day forecast is a whopping 288 HDD for Feb. 5-11.