01/31/2021, 4:08 pm EST

Arctic Outbreak Now More Confidently Forecast for Feb. 6-8!

We’ve watched the GFS project arctic air for the extended-range for about one week generally indicating high intensity but mostly confined to the Central U.S. Last night the GFS indicated the arctic air may stretch into the East with intensity but most models continued to doubt that scenario. This afternoon the ECMWF forecast projects super cold arctic air into the central U.S. next weekend shifting east and southeast with authority for early next week.
01/28/2021, 12:46 pm EST

A Strong Negative Arctic Oscillation Winter 2020-21 But So Far No U.S. Cold

Meteorological winter 2020-21 (so far) is very warm across the U.S. despite presence of a moderate-to-strong negative arctic oscillation also projected to last through February. During 3 analog years when -AO was similarly intense the Central/East U.S. experienced historic cold. The explanation for the warmer winter across the U.S. is related in-part to a constricted polar ice cap and warmer mid-latitude ocean surface.
01/28/2021, 8:11 am EST

Spectacular Cold 11-15 Day Forecast by GFS!

The overnight GFS Operational Model indicates a frigid arctic outbreak into the U.S. in the 11-15 day period. The U.S. gas population weight heating degree day forecast is a whopping 288 HDD for Feb. 5-11.
01/27/2021, 7:04 pm EST

Preliminary 2021 North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook And 2020 Review

The preliminary 2021 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season forecast is attached. The outlook is more active than normal featuring 16 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes with an ACE index of 122. The climate conditions feature neutral ENSO and a North Atlantic tropical/subtropical basin not quite as warm as last year.