01/26/2021, 11:43 am EST

Checking Medium-range Temperature Forecast skill Scores of All Models

Not surprisingly the GFS Operational model finishes last in skill scores for forecast 2-meter temperatures in the 6-10 and 11-15 day period across North America. The European Ensemble edges out the American Ensemble for best scores. data provided by CWG/Storm Vista WX Models.
01/26/2021, 11:35 am EST

Alaska Ridge Bridge/Canadian Polar Vortex Days 11-15…But Is It Right?

The highly volatile GFS Operational model indicates a near-perfect set-up to generate Canadian arctic air likely to pour into the U.S. in 2 weeks. The GFS is on its own. Other models are not generating this pattern. A close watch on other models to watch trends toward the GFS solution.
01/25/2021, 10:35 am EST

NCEP CFS V2 Indicates La Nina Could Turn Much Stronger Later This Year

The updated NCEP CFS V2 indicates La Nina continues with moderate intensity through April and intensifies to a “strong” La Nina the second half of the year. The NCEP CFS V2 forecast is in opposition to most other forecast models which favor weakening La Nina in 2021.
01/24/2021, 5:13 pm EST

Cold Spike for New England/Northern Mid-Atlantic Friday/Saturday

Forecast models are in good agreement on a cold spike striking the Northeast U.S. Thursday night/Friday morning and lasting through next weekend. The peak of cold is Friday morning through Saturday morning when very cold temperatures are accompanied by high wind producing extreme wind chill.