01/07/2021, 1:25 pm EST

Using The Mega-Cluster Ensemble To Track Snow Risk In The East U.S.

Forecast models have shown (at times) a trail of snow storms across the East U.S. in recent days. Each model run varies, sometimes widely. How do you make an assessment for planning purposes given the variability of operational models? The mega-cluster ensemble accounts for ALL models including their prevailing skill level to put-together a daily “most likely” projection of the weather. The model also assigns a confidence level and identifies which operational model was used most influentially.
01/04/2021, 2:27 pm EST

Decelerating La Nina Historical Climate for MAR/APR/MAY

La Nina 2020-21 has entered the mature phase. All dynamic forecast models indicate La Nina will begin to weaken during quarter 1 of 2021 shifting to neutral phase during quarter 2 of 2021. Specific climate influences are likely due to this transition on the U.S., South America and Australia.
01/02/2021, 1:32 pm EST

December 2020 HDD Over-achieved Considering Mild U.S. Climate

The first month of meteorological winter 2020-21 was much warmer than normal. HOWEVER, due to cold spikes related to increased snow cover or surface wind advecting over snow cover (and into the Southeast U.S.) plus above normal number of cloudy days much of the eastern third of the U.S. observed near to above normal heating degree days.