01/24/2021, 12:27 pm EST

Madden Julian Oscillation To Intensify

For the first time since November the Madden Julian oscillation is activated and intensifying in the equatorial Pacific Ocean into early February. The result is increased risk of excessive precipitation in the East-central U.S. and a mild climate pattern east of the Continental Divide as the final month of meteorological winter arrives.
01/20/2021, 5:30 pm EST

Early Next Week Winter Storm In The East

Today’s afternoon “European Model” indicated an evolving storm late Sunday night/early Monday centered on Missouri shifting toward West Virginia Monday evening and offshore the northern Mid-Atlantic States Tuesday morning. A wide range of weather is produced by this storm.
01/17/2021, 9:47 am EST

Northern Hemisphere Pattern Change Catalyst for Late January is an Evolving -PNA and +SCAND Pattern

Beginning midweek the northern hemisphere jet stream will trough on the U.S. West Coast and re-strengthen in western Europe. In-between the two vigorous trough patterns a third trough resides south of Greenland. By late January the pattern still remains although with slightly less amplitude. These features shape the last third of January 2021 climate for the northern hemisphere.
01/14/2021, 7:59 am EST

The End of January Northern Hemisphere Pattern

Rather than using any single model the mega-cluster ensemble which accounts for all models projects "most likely" scenarios which are more reliable. The most recent mega-cluster ensemble projection of temperature anomalies for the northern hemisphere in the extended-range (days 11-15) indicates steady presence of the winter 2020-21 arctic air reservoir stretched across Russia.