ECM model indicates a winter storm early next week in the East.
Fig. 1-3: ECM depiction of a winter storm early next week. Freezing rain/icing is a significant part of this storm affecting the Mid-Atlantic to Ohio Valley while significant (4-8 in.) snowfall extends from the northern Ohio Valley to southern New England.
Discussion: Today’s afternoon “European Model” indicated an evolving storm late Sunday night/early Monday centered on Missouri (Fig. 1) shifting toward West Virginia Monday evening (Fig. 2) and offshore the northern Mid-Atlantic States Tuesday morning (Fig. 3). A wide range of weather is produced by this storm. Most notable is a set-up for freezing rain/icing. Freezing rain could occur as far south as central Virginia early Monday but more organized with significant accretion possible in Maryland/Pennsylvania/New Jersey/Delaware westward to the southern Ohio Valley on Monday. Significant snow (4-8 in.) is likely across Iowa to the northern Ohio Valley and eastward to southern New England into Tuesday. There’s a nice fetch of cold air out of Canada into this system so the wintery regime described is reliable at this early juncture.