10/31/2025, 10:06 am EDT
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10/31/2025, 10:06 am EDT

Trending Drier/Hotter Argentina in November

In a reversal of pattern, the dryness and anomalous heat in Brazil during much of October is squashed by November rains while the drier (and hotter) pattern shifts to Argentina. The wet bias in November is across East Brazil.
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10/30/2025, 4:42 am EDT
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10/30/2025, 4:42 am EDT

Black Sea Region Was Wet in October Reverses Dry in November

October was wet across much of the Black Sea region eroding drought conditions. However, the weather pattern changes as November approaches. Forecast models indicate a very dry pattern through the first half of November in the Black Sea AG regions. Lack of snow cover across Northwest/North Eurasia biases the climate pattern warm. Snow cover continues to reach far southward in Northeast Asia.
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10/29/2025, 6:01 am EDT
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10/29/2025, 6:01 am EDT

Current Short-term and Winter U.S. (and Europe) HDD Projections

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast trend is warmer for the first 2/3 of November likely to stay that way through early meteorological winter. In the U.S., the cold risk is during mid-to-late winter. Western Europe HDDs are generally warmer than normal for upcoming winter and not as cold as the past 2 winter seasons during January.
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10/29/2025, 4:22 am EDT
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10/29/2025, 4:22 am EDT

Deciphering South America Weather

A review of the OCT-25 precipitation climate across South America so far reveals a drier than normal regime across Central to Southeast Brazil which justifies ongoing below normal soil moisture observations from NOAA. Argentina has been mixed yielding mostly normal to wetter than normal soil conditions. A wetter Brazil forecast is indicated, initially associated with the ongoing negative Antarctic oscillation, and continuing later in November due to a wet monsoon.
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10/27/2025, 9:32 am EDT
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10/27/2025, 9:32 am EDT

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Phase and Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events

Recent research regarding “Sensitivity of Easterly QBO’s Boreal Winter Teleconnections and Surface Impacts to SSWs” by Dillon Elsbury, Amy Butler, Yannick Peings, and Gudrun Magnusdottir was reviewed to assess the claim that wintertime SSWs are more common during the easterly phase of QBO. The question is important due to the direct connection of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events causing a split in the polar vortex with southward migration to Eurasia and North America causing arctic air generation and outbreaks for high population middle latitude locations.
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10/26/2025, 1:24 pm EDT
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10/26/2025, 1:24 pm EDT

Catastrophic Category-5 Major Hurricane Melissa Ahead for Jamaica

Major Hurricane Melissa slowly approaches Jamaica over the next 24-36 hours while intensifying to a category-5 major hurricane. Melissa moves northeastward as a major hurricane across Southern Cuba into midweek with the U.S. Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay in the dangerous right front quadrant of the hurricane. The NOAA/NHC rainfall forecast indicates widespread 10-30-inch amounts with high spots near 40 inches causing widespread flash flooding and numerous mudslides in parts of Hispaniola, all of Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba.
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10/26/2025, 12:13 pm EDT
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10/26/2025, 12:13 pm EDT

Searing Heat and Dryness in Australia Forecast to Fade

October is surprisingly dry across much of Australia especially in the East. Wet weather is confined to the northwest to south-central coast of the continent. Anomalous heat has dominated October with impressive anomalous daytime heat across East Australia. The East Australia heatwave fades due to sudden heavy rains to finish October.
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10/26/2025, 12:10 pm EDT
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10/26/2025, 12:10 pm EDT

ECM Maintains Wet Bias to Brazil Forecasts

The performance of lead operational models forecasting rainfall across South America continues wetter than observed across northwest continent, west/southwest Brazil, and southeastward toward Uruguay. The ECM wet bias is stronger than GFS across Brazil. The GFS indicates a moderate dry bias across Northern Brazil.
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10/23/2025, 9:07 am EDT
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10/23/2025, 9:07 am EDT

Tropical Storm Melissa Remains a RI Candidate

RI (rapid intensification) is defined as a tropical cyclone gaining more than 35 mph in top wind speed within 24 hours. On the weekend, an upper-level high pressure builds east-northeast of Melissa forcing a discernable northwest steering current. During this time, upper-level shear eases. As Melissa moves northwest in an improving environment, the storm is better able to intensify rapidly moving across 30-31C surface water and the 3rd warmest upper ocean heat content on record for the Caribbean Sea.
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10/23/2025, 8:27 am EDT
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10/23/2025, 8:27 am EDT

U.S. Gas Population Weight HDD Forecast for 2025-26 Cold Season

The updated U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for winter 2025-26 reveals a warm start to the season as NOV and DEC fall beneath the (warm-biased) 10-year normal. The coldest risk is (clearly) evident in JAN when the HDD projection is equidistant between the 30-year and 10-year normal. FEB and MAR ease back to near the 10-year normal.
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