Current Short-term and Winter U.S. (and Europe) HDD Projections

A graph with blue lines and white text AI-generated content may be incorrect.
Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Phase and Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events
10/27/2025, 9:32 am EDT
A map of australia showing hot temperature AI-generated content may be incorrect.
Explaining Unexpected October 2025 Heat and Dryness across Australia
11/03/2025, 5:07 am EST
A graph with blue lines and white text AI-generated content may be incorrect.
Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Phase and Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events
10/27/2025, 9:32 am EDT
A map of australia showing hot temperature AI-generated content may be incorrect.
Explaining Unexpected October 2025 Heat and Dryness across Australia
11/03/2025, 5:07 am EST
Show all
A graph of different colored lines AI-generated content may be incorrect.

 

Climate Impact Company Gas/Power Report

Issued: Wednesday October 29, 2025

Headline: Current short-term and winter U.S. gas population weight HDD projections adding Europe.

Discussion: Overnight, the U.S. gas population HDD forecast shifted markedly warmer for the week ending Nov. 6 and especially for the week of Nov. 7-13 (Fig. 1). The Operational ECM was extremely warm Nov. 7-13.

Combining the short-term HDD outlook with the 4-6-week outlook reveals the very warm pattern extending to November 20 (Fig. 2). The week 4-6 forecast is based on a CFS V2/analog projection and can vary widely. Therefore, the last 3 days week 4-6 forecast is included to identify trend and confidence. Other than 2 days ago when CFS V2 showed a cold week-4 forecast, the warmer trend appears consistent.

The warm operational HDD forecasts for November imply the NOV-25 (already warm) Climate Impact Company projection may be warmer (Fig. 3). The remainder of winter stays warmer than the 10-year normal in December with normally cold (and upside colder risk) for January and possibly February.

The Western Europe selected cities HDD forecast for the cold season indicates a milder than normal winter and not as cold as the past 2 January’s (Fig. 4).

Graph of a graph showing the temperature of a gas population AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Fig. 1: The gas population weight HDD forecast utilizing all models, their consensus, and comparison with yesterday and the 10-year/30-year normal.

A graph of different colored lines AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Fig. 2: The U.S. gas population weight consensus forecast from Fig. 1 adding the CFS V2/analog forecast for week 4-6 for today and the past 3 days.

A graph showing the temperature of the day AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Fig. 3: The Climate Impact Company population weight HDD forecast for the U.S. during the 2025-26 cold season compared to the 10-year/30-year climatology.

A graph of different weather conditions AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Fig. 4: The Climate Impact Company selected cities for Western Europe HDD forecast for the 2025-26 cold season compared to the last 2 years and the 10-year/30-year climatology.