March 2025 - Climate Impact Company

03/31/2025, 1:07 pm EDT

If Warm Nino12 SSTA Region Persists, Hurricane Activity Suppressed

Of potential influence on the 2025 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season is the ongoing very warm Nino12 SSTA off the northwest coast of South America while the Nino34 SSTA, where oceanic ENSO phase is measured, has recently shifted from La Nina to neutral ENSO although waters in this region have re-cooled slightly during the past 2 weeks. The persistent unusual warming of waters off the northwest coast of South America while the remainder of the equatorial East Pacific observed near normal SSTA began in early February.

03/31/2025, 8:02 am EDT

High Impact Weather Week in the U.S.

Dangerous flooding is likely in the East-central U.S. this week focused on WED-FRI due to a day-after-day severe weather and excessive rainfall in the same area. The area affected is Dallas to Oklahoma City northeastward to St. Louis and Memphis and into the Ohio Valley. After the heavy rain, unseasonably chilly air arrives.

03/31/2025, 4:54 am EDT

Unusually Chilly Weather Ahead for East Europe/West Russia

Expect unseasonably chilly air to emerge in the 8-14-day period with coolest anomalies across East Europe and West Russia. Threshold temperatures include <32F across much of central and east portions of Europe and west sections of Russia in the 6-10-day period.

03/30/2025, 11:55 am EDT

Adding Cold Risk to Midwest U.S. (with Rainy Periods) Hindering Crop Planting

Of added importance to the forecast is cold weather. Focused primarily on the 8-14-day period, a chilly early April is indicated especially for the Eastern Corn Belt. The risk of <32F extends to the Tennessee Valley and across the Midwest U.S. with widespread 20’s reaching the Ohio Valley in the 11-15-day period.

03/26/2025, 8:50 am EDT

U.S. AG Belt and Black Sea Region Trend Wetter

An energetic storm track across the U.S. is trending stronger in overnight forecasts. Wetter conditions are projected in the AG regions including Mid-south U.S. severe weather and snowfall across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, a long-term drought in the Black Sea region receives some beneficial rainfall in the medium range.

03/25/2025, 1:46 pm EDT

Expanding East Asia Drought

Daily soil moisture anomaly analysis from NOAA reveals a developing drought condition in Eastern China. Dry soils are developing in South Korea (where wildfires are burning) and Southern Japan. The developing drought is affecting mainly the eastern portion of wheat, soybean, and corn-growing areas.

03/24/2025, 8:20 am EDT

Drifting Wetter Black Sea Region and Brazil Where Rain is Needed

Rain is desperately needed in Brazil and the Black Sea region, two extremely important agricultural areas. Wet weather is in the forecast to finish March and begin April for both regions.

03/24/2025, 8:11 am EDT

North/East Australia Excessive Rainfall!

While 11-15-day forecasts are disagreeable on whether the heavy rain pattern fades in Northeast/East Australia, the 10-day forecasts are confident. The ECM ENS indicates up to 12 inches of rain for Southwest Queensland in their latest 10-day outlook.

03/23/2025, 9:36 am EDT

No La Nina and Super-warm North Atlantic Tropics in 2025 Holds Seasonal Activity Back Slightly

The (recent) climate catalysts forcing unusually high amounts of hurricanes in the North Atlantic basin is the presence of La Nina climate (as defined by multivariate ENSO index) and very warm sea SSTA in the North Atlantic tropics (as defined by tropical North Atlantic index). These conditions were especially present during 2017 (10 hurricanes/6 major hurricanes), 2020 (13/6), and 2024 (11/5). A La Nina climate produces below normal wind shear aloft necessary across the North Atlantic tropics to allow abundant tropical cyclones to form and storm intensity increases due to the anomalous warm ocean.

03/21/2025, 12:00 pm EDT

Summary of Initial 2025 North Atlantic Basin TC Seasonal Outlook

The Climate Impact Company 2025 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season will maintain the 2016-24 active period. However, the 2025 forecast is slightly below the 2016-24 average activity except for the number of intense hurricanes. The forecast is slightly above the longer-term climatology.

03/20/2025, 9:28 am EDT

Comparing Q2/2025 and Meteorological Summer 2025 NOAA and CIC Climate Forecasts

A comparison between the NOAA/CPC long-lead probabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts and the Climate Impact Company constructed analog outlooks centered on APR/MAY/JUN 2025 and JUN/JUL/AUG 2025.

03/20/2025, 8:05 am EDT

Soaking Wet Australia Pattern Ahead!

A wet pattern remains in the forecast for Australia into early April. Upper air forecasts feature a semi-persistent upper trough across northwest continent. The upper trough produces instability coupled with warm SSTA surrounding the continent a regime develops capable of producing widespread heavy and consistent rains across much of Australia.