Much above normal tropical cyclone activity is observed in the Indian Ocean during the 2024-25 tropical cyclone season. Slightly below normal activity is observed east of Australia despite recent Category-4 Major Hurricane Alfred.

Major drought is developing and will intensify in the Southwest U.S. and Middle East plus East China and West Tropical Africa based on the most recent Climate Impact Company 3-month global soil moisture outlook.

The U.S. arctic outbreaks in January and February were triggered by unconventional stratospheric warming events in that the warming was confined to Canada and the attendant polar vortex was locally generated, over North-central U.S. to cause the cold. Note that the stratosphere was cold on the Europe side of the North Pole. The March stratospheric warming event is stronger and across wider aerial coverage. However, the core of the warming is on the Siberia side of the North Pole therefore less reliably effective at generating North America cold.

A major severe weather outbreak is forecast for today across northern Gulf States and Mid-south U.S. A large area is forecast to receive tornado risk from Texarkana to Mobile today/tonight. On Wednesday, the severe weather risk shift is into the East. Tornado risk continues centered on the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia.

Of course, the explanation is complex. But, in my view, a large contribution to the unexpected cold pattern occurring mid-to-late meteorological winter across the U.S. was caused by the poleward latent heat release (caused by seasonality) across the record warm northern hemisphere oceans last mid-to-late autumn.