02/28/2025, 9:06 am EST
The daily Nino12 SSTA roars to +1.36C and is nearly 2C warmer than 30 days ago. The 2024-45 La Nina appears short-lived! The much warmer change is driven by effects from a recent Madden Julian oscillation regime.
02/28/2025, 5:47 am EST
Stratospheric warming is indicated in the polar region in the 11-15-day period. The warming is immense and should cause arctic air to form at ground level. Forecast models are slow to identify the arctic air risk. What may happen is "chunks" of arctic air form and bring brief but potent cold as indicated by AIFS into the Northeast U.S. centered on March 11.
02/27/2025, 1:22 pm EST
Interestingly, the 500 MB anomaly pattern governing the Australia summer 2024-25 pattern was the polar opposite of the 2015-25 optimum climate normal. Marine heat waves once again played a large role in the Australia summer weather pattern and will continue to guide climate patterns through autumn as ENSO influence weakens with fading La Nina.
02/27/2025, 8:43 am EST
Titanic subtropical high pressure leads to the hottest weather of calendar summer in East Brazil and much of Australia into early March. Nearby heavy rains are in Argentina while a major tropical cyclone is close to the Australia East Coast.
02/26/2025, 2:00 pm EST
The U.S. Drought Monitor reveals larger aerial coverage of drought risk across the U.S. during the onset of the final third of February this year versus 2024. Last spring, a wet regime erased Midwest dry soil conditions. This year, the meteorological spring forecast indicates above normal precipitation for the North-central and Northeast U.S.
02/26/2025, 1:57 pm EST
Four forecast models are considered to offer a broad view of forecast skill during the past 60 days for the northern hemisphere, North America, and Europe. The four processed considered are two physics-based models: ECM ENS and GFS plus two AI models: AI Graph Cast ECM ENS and AIFS. ECM ENS is selected due to the consistent highest skill score while GFS is reviewed due to high visibility.
02/25/2025, 4:38 pm EST
The early meteorological summer 2025 U.S. soil moisture condition projects a large drought across the Southwest U.S. including the southern half of both California and Texas. Drought is also projected for much of the Atlantic Seaboard plus northern Florida. Dry soil conditions extend across the North-central U.S. plus parts of the Gulf Coast through the interior East U.S. and southern Florida.
02/25/2025, 12:35 pm EST
All forecast models indicate an evolving very hot weather pattern across Australia this weekend and next week. Included is a tropical cyclone risk likely to strike the central and/or southern Queensland coast.
02/24/2025, 9:32 am EST
During recent weeks, the convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) settled in the eastern equatorial Pacific to the longitudes of the Americas. Consequently, trade winds have eased across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean preventing the upwelling of cooler waters to sustain La Nina. The Nino SSTA regions have warmed significantly.
02/24/2025, 5:35 am EST
A brief review of MAR/APR/MAY 2025 temperature and precipitation anomaly forecasts based on a constructed analog heavily weighted toward current and projected regional SSTA regimes. In the U.S., southern drought expansion while Western Russia turns wet and Western Europe drier. A dry autumn for Brazil ahead!
02/23/2025, 2:13 pm EST
In Australia, the past week was mostly drier and cooler than normal. Re-emerging heat and dryness will affect the entire continent this week. However, during the medium range Eastern Australia turns very wet. Potential for impacts from a tropical cyclone are apparent for early next week while much of the North turns generally eater than normal in the 8-14/11-15-day period.
02/21/2025, 2:59 pm EST
Climate forcing by colder than normal conditions in the stratosphere during meteorological winter 2024-25 centered on Greenland produced a mostly warmer than normal winter across the northern hemisphere, especially Canada and Eurasia. However, there was a notable exception. Two brief stratospheric warming events took place across Canada, one just after mid-January and another during mid-February. Each event caused a polar vortex episode in North America.