February 2025 - Page 2 of 3 - Climate Impact Company

02/20/2025, 9:26 am EST

NOAA Updates Long-lead Climate Forecasts

NOAA updates their monthly probabilistic climate forecasts. Highlighted is a wet March (and spring) across the Ohio Valley and vicinity where additional high impact weather events are likely. A dry spring is ahead for the Southwest U.S. while the Northwest shifts wetter.

02/20/2025, 5:48 am EST

Two Major Arctic Outbreaks During One Winter Season

The polar vortex event for the week of February 16-22, 2025, is preliminarily projected to generate 270 HDD for the U.S. which is comparable to the arctic outbreak and Winter Storm “Enzo” during January 19-25, 2025, and the arctic outbreak and Winter Storm “Uri” during February 14-20, 2021.

02/19/2025, 12:55 pm EST

A Double-Dip La Nina Ahead in 2025

The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society released a collection of Nino34 SSTA forecasts for 2025 earlier today. The consensus of dynamic (and especially) statistical Nino34 SSTA forecasts is a trend toward a “double dip” La Nina for later this year. Previously, Climate Impact Company issued a Nino34 SSTA constructed analog forecast indicating a second La Nina later in 2025 somewhat more intense than the 2024-25 version.

02/18/2025, 8:19 am EST

Finally, Some East Europe/Southwest Russia Snow Cover and Following Cold

Late winter chill has emerged across Western Russia, Ukraine, and most of the Black Sea region as the middle third of February arrives. The chilly weather has extended west to France, Germany, and parts of U.K. The colder weather is enhanced by generation of snow cover, previously unavailable, across Eastern Europe to Southwest Russia. Western Europe remains snow-free. The latest 7-day temperature forecast utilizing ECM indicates widening and strengthening cold surrounding the Black Sea region with additional snowfall included.

02/18/2025, 8:15 am EST

Madden Julian Oscillation Triggers High Impact U.S. Weather Events; Weakens La Nina

The weekend Kentucky flooding and high wind episode across the Mid-Atlantic States was triggered, in part, due to an eastward shifting convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation. During the past 7-10 days, the effect of the passing MJO event through the tropical East Pacific severely injured the La Nina episode.

02/17/2025, 7:59 am EST

Another Polar Vortex Event This Week in the U.S.

High impact weather affects most of the U.S. this week due to a February “polar vortex” episode. Currently, Extreme Cold Warnings are in effect for the North-central U.S. as temperatures have plummeted well below zero. A veil of fresh snow ahead of the arctic air across the central Great Plains where Winter Storm Warnings are issued will allow the southward flowing arctic air to maintain intensity.

02/13/2025, 11:38 am EST

Natural Gas Prices and U.S. Thermal Pattern for winter 2024-25 So Far

Another cold peak is ahead for next week in the U.S. causing natural gas prices to rise. Forecasts are trending colder, and additional price rise is possible. Next week's cold is impressive but not quite as strong as the mid-winter episode.

02/13/2025, 9:01 am EST

Colder Trend for Next Week in the U.S.; HDD Count Increasing

Next week's forecast in the U.S. is colder. The HDD count for next week is 249 which is 58 HDD colder than normal. The peak cold of winter Jan. 19-25 was 282 which was 59 colder than normal.

02/13/2025, 5:19 am EST

Sudden Warming of the Nino12 SSTA Region Affects South America Rainfall Pattern

The 2024-25 ENSO regime has featured evolution of La Nina although occasional surprises remain consistent with the latest the sharp warming of the Nino12 SSTA region off the northwest coast of South America. The daily Nino12 SSTA is +0.88C which is an El Nino-like observation. The Nino12 SSTA warming will affect the South America rainfall pattern through the next several weeks.

02/12/2025, 12:06 pm EST

Active Monsoon Soaks Queensland

The active monsoon regime unloaded excessive rainfall across Northern Queensland and the North Coast of Australia during the week ending February 10. Moderate to heavy rain also occurred in east/southeast New South Wales and the southeast coast of Victoria.

02/11/2025, 4:34 pm EST

Another Snowstorm Alert for February 19-21; U.S. January 2025 State Climate Rankings

NOAA/CPC issues another heavy snow risk alert for the East U.S. valid February 19-21. Additionally, state rankings for January 2025 were released by NOAA. The month was 33rd coldest on record in the 1895-2025 climatology. The month was very dry ranking 6th driest all-time!

02/11/2025, 6:58 am EST

-AO/-NAO Pattern Keeps East Half of U.S. Cold Through February

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast is becoming impressively cold for next week and late February with a significant colder revision since yesterday. Medium-range forecasts shift the cold across the high population of the East U.S. to increase national heating demand into late meteorological winter.