February 2025 - Page 3 of 3 - Climate Impact Company

02/10/2025, 7:21 pm EST

February 2025 ENSO, PDO, AMO, and IOD Outlook

The Climate Impact Company ENSO, PDO, AMO, and IOD constructed analog forecasts are updated. The ENSO outlook increasingly favors 2025 as a La Nina year while cool phase PDO continues until a possible phase change early next year.

02/10/2025, 5:19 am EST

Dynamic Weather Pattern Across Brazil/Argentina Continues

The ECM 500 MB anomalies 15-day forecast indicates the dynamic upper air pattern continues. The subtropical ridge area splits, returning to home base, across the MHW locations. In-between the split, conditions favoring heavy rain to suppress the intense heat develops in Northeast Argentina/Uruguay centered on the 6-10-day period.

02/09/2025, 7:40 pm EST

Australia Climate Forecast is Wet East Coast Much of 2025

The Australia season 1-4 ahead outlook is updated. The forecast is valid for meteorological autumn 2025 through summer 2025-26. The forecast is based on an ENSO climate favoring La Nina, neutral Indian Ocean dipole, and the influence of marine heat waves either side of the continent. Forecast highlights include a persistent wet climate in southeastern Australia likely through next summer while next winter is warmer than normal.

02/07/2025, 9:15 am EST

Upper Air Pattern Changes: Wetter Argentina

This week, strong subtropical high pressure stretching across mid-continent from marine heat waves either side of South Americ render extreme heat from Argentina to Southeast Brazil. However, latest forecasts split the subtropical ridge allowing weak low pressure to form over Bolivia which lifts tropical rains from northwest continent southeastward into Argentina during the medium range.

02/06/2025, 1:53 pm EST

Is There Sudden Stratospheric Warming Ahead in Early March?

Utilizing CFS V2 extended range forecasts of the stratosphere there is not an obvious sign of an emerging sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event during late FEB/early MAR. The ECM forecast is not available. HOWEVER, a major slowdown of the global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) is in the forecast through mid-March. When -GLAAM occurs, the mid-latitude upper-level pattern has the tendency to produce amplified low-pressure troughs.

02/06/2025, 4:01 am EST

Excessive Heat/Dryness Warning Argentina!

A titanic high-pressure area extending eastward from a marine heat wave west of South America causes extreme heat over the next 5-7 days in Argentina coupled with dryness likely to accelerate drought conditions into late summer.

02/05/2025, 12:57 pm EST

Tracking Winter Weather Events in the East

A large area of snow is forecast to the north of a slowly developing low pressure system, most intense off the Northeast Coast, this weekend. The NBM model forecasts 4-8 in. of snow in the Midwest which looks a bit high, and a more aggressive snowfall forecast, for New England, especially near the coast as the storm strengthens offshore early Sunday. There is a freezing rain/ice accretion risk across a large area most likely causing impacts over west-central Pennsylvania.

02/04/2025, 5:32 am EST

Impactful Winter Storms Ahead for the Central and Northeast U.S.

Although extended range U.S. forecasts trend milder overnight, there is a caveat for the Midwest to Northeast U.S. Corridor. During next week’s cold, the North and East U.S. storm track turns snowy. Consequently, as the U.S. enters the extended range, snow on the ground could allow chilly air to linger, especially in the Northeast.

02/02/2025, 12:41 pm EST

AI Graph Cast ECM ENS Becoming No. 1 Performing Model across North America in Medium-range

In the 11-15-day period, AI Graph Cast ECM ENS is competitive with ECM ENS with a significant jump in skill score to defeat ECM ENS during the past 7 days. Once again, AIFS skill scores are middle of the road and GFS ranks last.

02/02/2025, 11:43 am EST

The Ongoing Drought Risk in Brazil and Argentina

Ongoing drought risk across Argentina and Brazil as mid-meteorological summer 2024-25 has passed remains intense. Forecast models have generally been over-forecasting rainfall, especially in Brazil. During January, anomalous heat dominated Argentina. Despite periodic rainfall, mid-summer heat accelerates drying soils.

02/02/2025, 9:44 am EST

Subsurface Moderately Cold in Equatorial East Pacific as La Nina Likely to Linger well into NH Spring

Since 1979 the subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean to the east of the Dateline has produced peak subsurface cool signatures during La Nina, most dramatically during late last century with more frequent but less intense peak subsurface cool signatures during La Nina in this century. The JAN-25 subsurface cool anomaly was -1.32 and the coolest monthly signature from the 2024-25 cold ENSO episode.